
Claims that multipolarity has become the new global system have lost credibility, as global powers remain passive in response to U.S. strikes on Iran
The United States attacked three different Iranian nuclear facilities, namely the Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan sites, on June 22. Besides the Israeli attacks, the direct involvement of the U.S. will change both the regional and global balance of power. It is clear that the impact of bombing Iran is not limited to Iran and its periphery; it has surely global implications.
Many academicians and observers of international politics have claimed that the world has now entered a multipolar system. The most recent tragedies in the Middle East have indicated that this is not true. The world system is not multipolar, since no other global powers really challenge the military power of the U.S., the last hegemon.
European bandwagoning
It is claimed that there are four actors of the multipolar world system, namely the U.S., the European Union, Russia and China. When we analyze the policies and reactions of these four actors, we see that the U.S. still plays the role of the hegemon. However, U.S. hegemony is both defective and incomplete. It is defective because it does not function properly, and it is incomplete because the hegemon fails to provide global public goods such as international peace and stability. Still, no other global power has the will or intention to replace the last hegemon.
When we look at the policies of the other three global actors, namely the EU, Russia and China, toward the Middle Eastern crises, we see that they are far from claiming to be a hegemon or even to challenge the hegemon.
First, the ongoing genocide in Gaza and the most recent Israeli and American attacks have revealed that Europe is ineffective in international politics. It seems that not only the EU institutions and authorities but also the governments of leading European countries play no role in international politics. They do not have meaningful weight, but to bandwagon with the U.S. and Israel.
After Israel’s attacks against Iran, the European authorities have altogether blamed Iran, not Israel. When it comes to Israel, all European politicians become speechless. European leaders did not criticize Israel for waging the genocide against the Palestinians or for targeting innocent people for getting humanitarian aid in Gaza. Leaders of the major European countries, such as Germany, France and the United Kingdom, are blind to Israel’s crimes. However, such powerful European states have held Iran, which was hit by Israel and the U.S., responsible for the latest escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. It is clear that the decline of Europe will continue. There is no sign of a reverse orientation.
Russian indifference
Similarly, Russia has been playing an ineffective role in the Middle East crises. On the one hand, Russia did not take any concrete steps toward the ongoing genocide in Gaza. Russia, which has been known as a traditional friend of Palestine, has largely remained indifferent to the Palestinian tragedy.
In spite of the Iranian support for Russia during the Russian-Ukrainian War by providing drones and other weapons to Russia, Russia did not support Iran against the Israeli and American attacks. At this stage, the Russian government preferred to remain indifferent to the crisis. The only exceptional act has been Russian President Vladimir Putin's talking to the leaders of Iran and Israel and trying to mediate between the conflicting sides, since Russia cannot give up on either country.
Russia, whose economy is largely dependent on energy resources, will benefit from the rise in energy prices. The increasing oil prices will contribute to the Russian economy, which is under pressure due to the Ukraine War. Furthermore, Russia wants the Ukraine war to be off the agenda of the international community, while Western governments and people are busy with the Middle East. While Iran has become the center of the Middle Eastern crisis, the international community does not criticize the Russian invasion of Ukraine as it used to, and even the continuing Gaza genocide has fallen off the world’s agenda
Chinese dilemma
Lastly, China did not support Iran, one of its largest trade partners in the Middle East, during the Israeli and American attacks. China did not change its non-intervention discourse and called on both sides not to escalate the tension. It seems that China has reached a dead end. China claims that it tries to consolidate the Global South and lead them in achieving strategic autonomy. However, by remaining indifferent to the American and Israeli attacks against Iran, China will surely pay some price. At the very least, if the energy sector gets harmed, the Chinese economy will suffer.
On the other hand, bilateral relations do not require China to directly participate in the conflict in the Middle East in favor of Iran. First of all, Iran is not an unquestionable Chinese partner. Iran is not Pakistan; it has close relations with India. For example, Iran has signed several important agreements during the latest Pakistan-India crisis. Second, China does not want to otherize the Arab Gulf states, which feel threatened by Iran. Chinese trade relations with the Gulf states (more than $250 billion) are several times higher than its trade with Iran (about $15 billion).
Indifferent, inefficient
All in all, out of three global powers, the majority of European countries preferred to bandwagon with the U.S. They will continue to remain dependent on the U.S. in the security sector. Although the Russian political rhetoric has been largely anti-West, it still cannot challenge the U.S. power. China is not ready to challenge the U.S either. It cannot defend the non-Western countries against the U.S. power. In other words, the global system did not evolve into a multipolarity, but a system with a dominant military power that lacks constructive powers. The U.S. will continue to dominate world politics, but at a higher cost.
The current American political leadership is not a typical, conventional or traditional superpower. It lost its confidence due to its non-traditional political discourse. In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump has shown the world that if they do not have nuclear weapons, they can be targeted by the West. Indirectly, similar to North Korea, they have given a strong message to the non-Western world to develop nuclear weapons in order to deter the West. Nuclear weapons are recognized as decisive instruments of deterrence.