Türkiye is holding general elections in June 2023. After failing since 2002 to successfully challenge President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, leader of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), the opposition has established an alliance this time.

Openly supported by the six opposition parties and externally championed by the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), the legal wing of the PKK terrorist group, the pro-opposition Nation Alliance had a morale advantage until a few months ago. However, the alliance, which uses the public reaction against skyrocketing inflation, has been on the ground lately.

There are many reasons for this situation.

The first reason is that the opposition still has not been able to determine a candidate to be brought before President Erdoğan, even though there are eight months left before the elections. Even the opposition voters who want the 20-year AK Party government to be overthrown complain about the incompetence of the opposition and the inability of the parties to come to an agreement. They find arguments like "we will not announce even if our candidate is clear because they will wear them out" flippant and even childish.

Secondly, the opposition bloc has not been able to propose a concrete plan to solve voters' problems. Promises that will plunge the country into years of uncertainty, such as a return to the parliamentary system, do not appeal to anyone. People want peace, not conflicts that will create new problems.

Another issue is that the opposition appears to be surrendering to the West. For instance, there are even criticisms from within his own party about Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, chairperson of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), going to the United States during the nomination process. This is because Türkiye is a country where everyone is nationalist, from the right to left of the political spectrum.

In such a political atmosphere, the opposition's repetition of the Western bloc's arguments against Türkiye raises public suspicion. What is strange is that the opposition does not hesitate to tread in line with the country's rivals on Türkiye’s national issues. Obviously, they think that the ballot boxes for the June elections will be set up in European capitals rather than Anatolia, where there is a strong patriotic wave.

Erdoğan's greatest chance

Yes, President Erdoğan's greatest chance is this opposition, which he does not hesitate to thank from time to time. Erdoğan, who has won every election for 20 years, doesn't need to do anything to win since the opposition is doing its best to lose.

However, Erdoğan is a master politician who still stands out in the polls more than his closest possible rival. He cannot leave his job to chance. Every other day, he announces reform packages in various fields, from the economy to individual rights and freedoms. He continues to reach out to disadvantaged segments of society with new mass housing projects and economic support packages. He succeeds in convincing the voters that he has not missed the point and that the economy will get better.

Erdoğan's diplomatic achievements in the international arena also give the public confidence about the future. Especially with the role he has played since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war by making Türkiye the center of the solution, the president receives applause from voters from all walks of life. Turkish people believe Erdoğan should be at the helm of the country during this chaotic time when borders have actually changed and civil wars and instability have turned millions into refugees.

There are still months before the general elections in Türkiye. Of course, there will be many changes that we cannot foresee. But for now, this is the chart: Erdoğan seems to be setting another record.