Why does France continue experiencing political crises and social instability? Since President Emmanuel Macron’s reelection in 2022, particularly in the aftermath of his decision to dissolve France’s lower chamber, the National Assembly (Assemblée nationale), in June 2024, the country has faced an unprecedented equation of political impasse and social movement chaos. An equation that has left analysts asking: Is France a non-reformable country? Unlike its southern European neighbors, which managed to push through hardships and progressively reform their monetary policies, France cannot stop the hemorrhaging public debt that is eating up its economic growth.

Last week, French Prime Minister François Bayrou, to everyone's surprise, said that he would subject his government to a confidence vote over his euro 43.8 billion budget squeeze designed to bring down France’s massive budget deficit. He plans to cut two public holidays and freeze public spending - a poker move from an unpopular prime minister leading a minority government that has been dealing with a hung parliament in a lower chamber divided into three blocs, as a result of the July 2024 parliamentary election.

Endless blame game

In this endless blame game between the president and the opposition, the former has been demonizing the left-wing party France Unbowed (LFI) because it took a bold position on the ongoing genocide in the Gaza Strip and has been challenging the government's all fiscal, social and pro-business policies.

On the other hand, the extremist far-right National Rally (RN) party enjoys a safe participation strategy in the political debate and media. Despite its leader, Marine Le Pen, whose eligibility is increasingly questioned among party voters over a provisional judicial decision, the party has become France’s kingmaker in the lower chamber. Le Pen is still one of the most prominent figures in French politics thanks to her participation in the political debate and setting a concrete pro-business political program, which is less welfare-oriented, notably toward immigrants. The RN’s strategy was amplified by far-right media pundits, ultimately helping the party become France’s leading political force by successfully appealing to voters. De facto, Le Pen's strategy worked in the fall of Michel Barnier’s government last December and is expected to work again on Sept. 8, 2025, to bring down Bayrou’s government.

'Let's block everything' movement

All this political chaos brings us to another chapter in France’s recent history of political unrest. The current grassroots protest movement, Bloquons Tout ("Let’s Block Everything”), is the latest in a series of public mobilizations. It invites comparison with the Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests) movement, which significantly disrupted President Macron’s first term in the fall of 2018, when he was still viewed as a young and reformist leader. Like the Yellow Vests, Bloquons Tout is a heterogeneous movement that appears to be a continuation of earlier protests - expressing similar frustrations, but through different means.

In contrast to the Yellow Vests movement, the "Let’s Block Everything" movement is not calling the public to protest every Saturday in France’s large and medium cities or to block main road junctions, but it calls for strikes in key sectors of the economy. One could argue this is the Labor Unions’ doing, since the Labor Unions’ federations in France are calling for another strike on Sept. 10 and 18.

The year-long 2018 social movement that turned violent was a reaction to the government’s social and financial reforms, which enraged millions opposed to Macron’s pro-business policies. Then came the anti-retirement and pension reforms in winter 2023. The upcoming Sept. 10 and 18 protests could be the final blow to Macron and his longtime ally, Bayrou’s policies, if they lead to a direct clash between the angry, contrasting elements of the movement and the anti-riot police. French police, under the direction of extremist far-right Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, who is the Republicans (LR) party leader, who is already positioning himself as a natural candidate for the 2027 presidential elections with his tough cop’s rhetoric, the police’s actions have grown more confident and aggressive in handling protesters.

Macron's fatigue

The protest movement, in general, is producing widespread anti-Macron and anti-Bayrou sentiment, as the latter is pushing a deeply unpopular austerity agenda. Worth noting: Since 2022, France’s budgets have not been voted on by lawmakers. All of President Macron’s second-term prime ministers have used Article 49.3, the core trigger of France’s ongoing political drama.

This new social movement, however, cannot be easily tarnished by the president, government or even media, since it is not ideologically-driven, but has deeper roots of discontent among the public. In that sense, Macron and Bayrou argue that the political chaos crippling France’s financial reforms and harming its global image is a result of the protesters' anger, and the "hate speech” of leftist leaders and lawmakers from LFI. Yet for the large majority of protesters, and voters in general, it is clearly a personal struggle against the government.

According to a BFMTV poll conducted on Aug. 26, if François Bayrou’s government does not win the confidence vote on Sept. 8, 81% are in favor of appointing a new Prime Minister, 69% support dissolving the National Assembly, and 67% favor President Macron’s resignation.

Based on all this, the "Let’s Block Everything" movement is already prompting analysts and urban security experts to wonder how far it can go. Will it prolong just like the Yellow Vests movement did throughout 2018 and 2019? If it holds strong until next winter, a new social class segment might emerge from this movement to become an apolitical and non-ideological political force, playing a key role in the crucial municipal elections in March 2026, which will shape the road map to the 2027 presidential election.

France is in a deep sociopolitical crisis that may lead to a more severe institutional crisis. The country is no longer simply divided between wealthy and poor, or within the "have-not" social struggle of France's metropolitan areas. It is a question of old politics that Macron and Bayrou claim they want to reform and change.

Roots of incoherence

As a prime minister who speaks of integrity and austerity, Bayrou, who is also the mayor of the southwestern city of Pau along the Pyrenees mountains, has quietly restored his mayoral office with public money over the summer, according to investigative journalism site Mediapart. However, thanks to his austerity bill, his government is hanging by a thread. This causes political instability and economic uncertainty, and places Macron’s legitimacy under intense scrutiny. There will be more calls for the president to resign, though he is expected to resist.

He will appoint another prime minister, but after losing both Barnier and Bayrou, who would take the risk? Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu and Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin are on the shortlist, as is Bernard Cazeneuve, a social democrat, but this takes the president’s limited options back to square one. Meanwhile, Le Pen is calling for another dissolution of the National Assembly, which is now legally possible, as more than a year has passed since the last one.

Certainly, new elections would sideline Macron’s centrist bloc. Most likely, it would enhance the far-right RN party, though the most probable scenario is another odd and contradictory coalition will emerge with the far-right (RN party), center-right (LR party), and left (LFI, Communists and Green party, with or without the Socialists) in the new elected lower chamber. This would be a nightmare scenario for the president since none of the three blocs would hold a comfortable majority to govern.

Under such circumstances, France is heading toward an institutional crisis, condemned to more domestic instability and growing weakness abroad. President Macron’s final 18 months in office are shaping up to be an endless political drama. There appears to be no alternative; France has truly become an unreformable country and the sick man of Europe.