The recent squabbling between U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. sanctions and tariffs against India, could damage the future cohesiveness of the Quad group, which includes Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Indian products and another 25% as a penalty tariff for India’s purchases of Russian oil.

India, conscious of its sovereign decision-making and as the world’s largest democracy, stood its ground on Russian oil purchases, which, Trump says, have enabled Russia to continue with the Ukraine war. But many strategists and foreign policy experts warn against creating a "point-of-no-return” toxic environment, which could not only drive India away from Washington and closer to China, but also impact the Quad’s very foundation. India plays a vital role in checking China’s growing assertiveness not only in the Indo-Pacific region but also globally.

Nevertheless, one notices a slight softening in the U.S. tone, with Trump’s ambassador nominee for India, Sergio Gor, saying during a recent Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing that Washington and New Delhi are "not that far apart” on tariffs. Indeed, Gor even hinted about Trump’s possible visit to India later this year to attend the Quad summit.

Gor’s comments contrasted sharply with the vituperative outbursts by Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, who recently described the Russian/Ukraine war as "India’s war” and chastized Brahmins (India’s upper caste) for profiteering and, in effect, prolonging the war by buying Russian oil.

When asked if Trump would attend the Quad summit meeting later this year in India, Gor responded: "Without committing to exact dates ... the president is fully committed to continue to meet with the Quad and strengthen it." However, the U.S. has, so far, not officially confirmed whether Trump would personally attend the Quad meeting.

However, Trump, using his posts on X, has been praising India and Modi, leading some observers to believe that he would likely attend the Quad summit in India.

A State Department senior official said in New York a few days back that the U.S. is "very much” interested in continuing American involvement in the Quad, though the official would not indicate if President Trump would visit India "for the Quad summit or sometime next year.”

Quad's targets

Notwithstanding the uncertainty so far about Trump’s participation in the Quad summit, the administration appears keen to streamline the Quad’s work and reduce the number of working groups to just "the most important priorities” to achieve tangible results and substantial outputs. It is keen to expand the Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA) initiative by using regional information fusion centers, particularly in the western Indian Ocean. It also aims to expand the Quad-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission to other nations, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), despite some ASEAN countries' reservations about creating an Asian NATO that could antagonize China. Nevertheless, most Asian nations do emphasize maritime security as their common goal. Indeed, joint coast guard and border patrol exercises – particularly with countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam and South Korea – could train and invigorate the law enforcement skills of non-Quad member countries in the region.

Despite the public anger and negative sentiments in South Korea against the Trump administration’s recent arrests and the humiliating manner of deporting undocumented South Korean workers at the Hyundai’s Georgia plant, the U.S.-South Korean relationship has not suffered any major damage. Indeed, given its strategic location, South Korea’s Quad membership would be an asset.

Quad’s other major areas of interest lie in pooling resources and coordinating investments in regional subsea cable infrastructure, including repair and maintenance facilities to reduce dependence on Chinese-operated vessels, besides developing a mechanism for the Quad maritime working group to collaborate with ASEAN countries to address enforcement gaps in international law related to intentional severing of subsea cables, thus preventing subsea cable sabotage and helping apprehend the culprits.

The Quad also aims to enhance public-private sector cooperation on critical minerals through the initiative known as the Quad Investors’ Network. This private sector platform brings together Quad investors, corporations and public institutions to accelerate investment in critical and emerging technologies across the Indo-Pacific region.

A Quad-led supply chain crisis response network, utilizing the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), could be developed, particularly in light of recent global shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, and growing U.S.-China competition. Regular dialogue between the Quad and the ASEAN group could strengthen cooperation between both groupings, as well as the annual Quad-ASEAN forum and with other sub-regional organizations, such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association and the Pacific Islands Forum.

What will Trump do?

Trump should follow up actively on the Quad, which he helped revive in 2019 during his first term, after it faced a setback when former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd withdrew Australia from the grouping because he feared it would make him appear anti-China. Indeed, it was also in Trump’s first presidential term that the Quad’s first foreign ministers’ meeting was held in 2019, with invitations extended to New Zealand, South Korea and Vietnam to participate in its deliberations on health and other Indo-Pacific issues. This had also given rise to talk about a new grouping called "Quad Plus.”

A panel discussion, held on Sept. 16 at the Asia Society in New York, highlighted a range of Quad issues, including regional perceptions, the Quad’s evolving role, and its future trajectory amid bilateral tensions, U.S. policy shifts, and changing geopolitical dynamics. Daniel Russel, a former U.S. senior diplomat who served as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs and worked at the White House as a special assistant, with focus on Asian affairs, pointed out that while U.S. media reports suggested that Trump would not likely visit India for the Quad summit, Trump’s ambassador nominee to India had spoken about the "probability” of Trump visiting India. Russel said that Trump’s absence from the summit would send the "wrong signal” about U.S. leadership and weaken the Quad.

Another panelist at the discussion, Masafumi Ishii, former Japanese ambassador to Indonesia, underscored the importance of U.S. leadership of the Quad. "Everyone wants the U.S. to return to the region. I hope Trump attends the Quad summit in New Delhi, as scheduled. We prefer the U.S. to be present in the region, not just China,” he said. Ishii also called for the group’s expansion, with the inclusion of new members like Indonesia and South Korea. "The Quad may be driven by leadership, but it is also driven by cooperation. Should the U.S. withdraw from the Quad, Japan, India and Australia will remain strong partners. Indonesia can be added; it is important to have India and Indonesia in the Quad,” he emphasized.

However, U.S. traditional leadership of the Quad is important. Trump needs to provide a clear signal that the U.S. will not abandon the region; this can be achieved by elevating the Quad’s importance and mending its relationships with its members. Trump and his advisers have surely realized what could transpire if, for instance, pressure on India were to continue; the images of cordiality and bonhomie between Indian Prime Minister Modi, Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, witnessed at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin, rang alarm bells in Washington. While Trump has been saying that he would "always be friends with Modi, he’s a great prime minister,” such verbal gestures need to be backed up with tangible actions. A first step would be to attend the Quad summit in New Delhi this year.