More than one year has passed since Friedrich Merz took the oath of office as German Chancellor on May 6, 2025. It is time to take stock, and the picture, to put it mildly, is far from encouraging. Although Merz secured a strong 91.2% approval rating at the February party convention of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU), outside the party halls, his government appears uncertain, reactive and lacking political momentum.

The so-called "black-red coalition,” which is made up of the CDU, the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), is struggling to find a common rhythm. Differences between the conservative bloc and the SPD are increasingly visible, while disputes within the government have become part of daily political life.

And yet, activity itself is not lacking. According to official government figures, the coalition has passed around 175 laws and measures since May 2025. Most recently, the parties reached agreements on health care insurance reform and the framework for the 2027 federal budget, both politically sensitive and highly complex projects. However, instead of presenting these developments as signs of effective governance, the coalition appears consumed by internal conflicts. The public mood increasingly resembles the final phase of the government of Olaf Scholz: endless disputes, little unity and a growing sense of exhaustion.

Merz himself has tried to downplay the dissatisfaction. Appearing on Caren Miosga, one of Germany’s most influential political talk shows on the public broadcaster ARD, he argued that disappointment and criticism are normal phenomena for any government. Even the head of the Chancellery, Thorsten Frei, admitted weaknesses, especially in communicating the government’s achievements.

This may, in fact, be the coalition’s central problem: Even when the government acts, the public no longer perceives it as successful. The direct consequence has been the continuing rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

The polling numbers are striking. For the first time, the AfD has reached 26% in some national surveys, while the CDU/CSU bloc has fallen to 24%. At the same time, Merz’s personal approval ratings have collapsed to historic lows: Only 18% of Germans express satisfaction with his leadership, while 80% say they are dissatisfied. Even more alarming, according to polling institute Insa, 58% of respondents no longer believe this coalition will survive until the scheduled end of the legislative term in 2029.

Spahn, waiting for his moment

The dangers facing Merz, however, do not come only from the opposition or from coalition tensions. Increasingly, they emerge from within his own conservative camp.

One of the most significant figures in this internal power struggle is Jens Spahn. Once primarily known as Germany’s health minister during the COVID-19 pandemic, Spahn has transformed himself into one of the most influential strategists inside the CDU. Long before the 2025 federal election, he signaled broader ambitions. Today, many in Berlin openly describe him as a politician "waiting for his moment.”

The danger posed by Spahn lies not necessarily in open rebellion, but in his ability to reposition the CDU ideologically while presenting himself as a pragmatic alternative to Merz. He understands media dynamics, controls important networks within the parliamentary group and appeals to conservatives who believe Merz has failed to decisively weaken the AfD. Critics accuse Spahn of strategically intensifying internal tensions to strengthen his own standing, whether through controversial parliamentary tactics or by supporting cuts to programs such as "Demokratie leben” ("Live democracy"), a federal initiative designed to combat extremism and strengthen democratic culture.

For many observers, Spahn represents a new generation of CDU power politics: younger, more media-savvy, more tactical and less ideologically restrained. Unlike Merz, who often appears emotionally reactive, Spahn is seen as calculating and patient. If Merz’s authority continues to erode, Spahn could position himself as the man capable of "saving” the conservative camp before the next election. Such a scenario could destabilize the government even further, because every internal conflict weakens public trust not only in the chancellor, but in the democratic center as a whole.

Söder may shift his stand

At the same time, another figure continues to loom in the background: Markus Söder. The Bavarian minister-president has long cultivated the image of a politician permanently waiting for the right historical moment.

Söder’s political style is fundamentally different from Merz’s. He is highly adaptive, media-oriented and instinctively populist in communication. Over the years, he has repeatedly repositioned himself ideologically whenever public moods shifted, from conservative hardliner to pragmatic centrist and back again.

The danger represented by Söder is therefore not only personal ambition, but political unpredictability. Within the CDU/CSU alliance, the CSU has traditionally acted as both partner and pressure mechanism. If Merz weakens further, Söder could begin distancing himself publicly from Berlin in order to preserve his own political capital in Bavaria. German conservatives have seen this pattern before: a weakened chancellor can quickly become vulnerable once Bavarian support turns conditional.

Many in Berlin suspect that Söder still regrets not becoming the conservative candidate for chancellor in earlier election cycles. Unlike Spahn, who operates through internal party strategy, Söder’s influence functions through public pressure, media appearances, and emotional campaigning. He is capable of reshaping debates within days and forcing coalition partners into defensive positions.

Conservatives divided

This creates a dangerous triangle within the conservative camp itself: a weakened Chancellor, an ambitious tactician in Jens Spahn, and a permanently calculating Markus Söder. Together, these tensions risk creating the impression of a government already entering its succession battles long before the next election campaign officially begins.

Political consultant Johannes Hillje has described Merz as impulsive and frequently insensitive in communication. According to Hillje, the chancellor increasingly loses control over his messaging and behaves politically "like a bull in a china shop.” As a result, public debate is dominated less by policy achievements and more by controversies surrounding Merz’s statements.

All of this unfolds against the backdrop of mounting international crises: war in the Middle East, rising energy prices and a steadily worsening economic outlook. Only 11% of Germans currently express optimism about the country’s future, while two-thirds expect conditions to deteriorate further.

One year after taking office, Merz’s government finds itself at a critical crossroads. Internal divisions, weak public perception, and the rise of right-wing populism form an increasingly volatile combination.

The central question is no longer merely whether this government can implement its reforms. The real question is whether it still possesses the political stability necessary to survive until the end of its mandate.