When Turkish Petroleum (TPAO) signed five hydrocarbon exploration agreements in Islamabad this week, the announcement passed quietly through global headlines. Yet for Pakistan and Türkiye, the deals comprising three offshore and two onshore blocks worth more than $300 million carry far greater significance than their technical description suggests.

Ankara’s decision to enter Pakistan’s offshore sector is not simply a search for oil and gas; the development represents the meeting point of two imperatives: Türkiye’s drive to diversify its energy geography and Pakistan’s attempt to revive its long-neglected offshore ambitions. More importantly, it signals how mid-sized powers are positioning themselves in a region where global alignments and energy corridors are being rapidly reshaped.

Ankara’s calculated expansion

Pakistan’s offshore basins, the Indus and Makran, have long been regarded as promising but underexplored. Only a handful of wells have been drilled in decades. The previous high-profile attempts, including the 2019 ExxonMobil-led deep-water venture, failed to deliver tangible results, hampered by the technical complexities of deep-water exploration.

Türkiye’s entry into this challenging environment marks a notable shift. TPAO has taken operational control of the Eastern Offshore Indus-C block, with plans to deploy its seismic fleet to Pakistani waters next year and establish a permanent office in Islamabad. Moreover, the consortium structure, pairing TPAO with Pakistan’s leading state-owned energy firms, points to a degree of political and institutional alignment that could help stabilize a sector historically plagued by uncertainty.

For Islamabad, the timing is fortuitous. Pakistan’s 2025 offshore bidding, which is its most meaningful exploration push in nearly two decades, has revived international attention. While domestic companies secured most awards, Türkiye’s participation reintroduces a level of operational capability and international visibility that Pakistan has struggled to attract. After years of stagnation, the offshore sector is beginning to regain credibility.

Türkiye’s entry in Pakistani offshore is rooted in an evolving energy strategy. Over the past two decades, Ankara has spent more than a trillion dollars on imported energy owing to fluctuating regional politics and global market volatility. While Türkiye remains tied to Russian, Iranian and Azerbaijani supply corridors, recent offshore success in the Black Sea has strengthened its confidence in pursuing more distant opportunities.

The outreach to Malaysia’s Petronas, Indonesia’s Pertamina, and now Pakistan signals a deliberate pivot toward new Asian partnerships. In this context, Pakistan offers something distinct: not only geological potential but a foothold in the Indian Ocean, a maritime arena where Ankara has been increasingly active through naval exercises, shipbuilding cooperation and defense diplomacy.

Pakistani waters offer Türkiye an extension of its energy map into a region where power balances are shifting. The Indian Ocean’s significance as a corridor for global energy flows is growing, and Türkiye’s presence there, even at an exploratory stage, would help in diversifying supply lines while expanding its geopolitical reach at the same time.

Broader strategic convergence

Energy collaboration between Pakistan and Türkiye does not emerge in isolation. The two countries have spent the past two decades deepening cooperation in defense production, drone development, naval modernization and intelligence coordination. This longstanding strategic relationship has built a level of comfort that now extends into economic and resource domains.

Beyond hydrocarbons, Turkish interest is also expanding into Pakistan’s mineral sector. A major Turkish mining firm has signaled interest in Pakistan’s copper-gold belt near Reko Diq, a mineral-rich region attracting heightened global attention. Moreover, reports suggest Türkiye plans to establish a facility in Pakistan to assemble combat drones. The project involves exporting stealth and long-endurance drones from Türkiye for local assembly in Pakistan. Together, these strands point to a maturing partnership that blends security cooperation with economic engagement.

While the partnership carries promise, deep-water exploration in Pakistan’s offshore zone remains a challenging frontier. Global market conditions remain volatile, and offshore drilling is inherently uncertain. Yet Türkiye’s operational capabilities, from seismic surveys to deep-sea drilling, mitigate many of these risks. Its recent offshore success in the Black Sea and growing expertise place it among a limited group of states capable of executing such technically demanding ventures.

Indian Ocean as a changing environment

Yet these developments unfold at a time when the Indian Ocean is becoming a central arena for energy, trade and geopolitical competition. The world order is changing drastically. Gulf economies are diversifying, China is emerging as a peer competitor to the U.S., both economically and militarily, Western powers are recalibrating their Indo-Pacific strategies, and South Asian states are reassessing their own energy and security postures.

Türkiye’s entry introduces another capable mid-sized power into this landscape, signaling that the Indian Ocean is becoming more multipolar than before, with more non-traditional players making strategic bets. While Ankara’s presence is unlikely to trigger friction in the near term, its growing engagement will be watched closely by regional states attuned to shifting alignments.

Türkiye’s offshore partnership with Pakistan is more than an energy deal. It reflects a calculated attempt to expand influence into a maritime corridor that is growing in strategic significance. For Pakistan, it represents an opportunity to reinvigorate a long-neglected resource frontier with the help of a technologically capable and politically aligned partner.

Whether the exploration succeeds or falters, the geopolitical outcome is already clear: the Pakistan-Türkiye relationship is entering a new phase shaped by maritime strategy, energy diversification and regional transformation. In an Indian Ocean basin where old alignments are fading and new contenders are emerging, the Ankara-Islamabad offshore gambit may prove to be one of the more consequential developments to watch in the coming decade.