The World Energy Outlook 2025 (WEO 2025), published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), examines the current state and future trajectory of the global energy system while attributing a far more decisive role to energy geopolitics than in previous years. In recent times, the convergence of pandemics, energy crises, rapid technological transformations, and climate change has amplified the fragility and uncertainty of energy markets to an unprecedented degree.
In assessing the future development of energy systems, WEO 2025 focuses not only on historical trends but also on the potential impacts of geopolitical powers and unforeseen events.
There is no single narrative for the future of energy; therefore, the World Energy Outlook presents multiple scenarios, none of which should be interpreted as forecasts. The framework provided in this outlook relies on the most recent and comprehensive data regarding policies, technologies and markets, supported by rigorous modeling.
WEO 2025 is structured around three main scenarios. Two of these establish baseline conditions and explore their potential outcomes: the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) and the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS). The third, the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario, outlines a roadmap for achieving specific energy and climate objectives.
The CPS provides a snapshot of policies and regulations currently in effect and offers a cautious perspective on the pace at which new energy technologies might be deployed. The STEPS considers a broader range of policies, including officially proposed but not yet implemented measures and other formal strategy documents indicating policy direction. While barriers to the adoption of new technologies are lower under STEPS than CPS, this scenario does not assume that expected targets will be fully achieved. Normative elements are present in other scenarios, guiding the system toward defined outcomes. The NZE Scenario provides an updated global roadmap for the energy sector to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.
The scenarios presented in the report highlight a wide spectrum of opportunities and vulnerabilities while also sharing common elements. Fundamentally, as economies expand and populations and incomes rise, all scenarios emphasize that global demand for energy services will increase across mobility, heating, cooling, lighting and other residential and industrial uses, as well as for data-driven and artificial intelligence-related services.
Beyond these general trends, four additional themes emerge consistently: the evolving nature of energy security, with critical minerals representing a significant vulnerability; the emergence of the Electric Age; the geographic shift of the energy system’s center from China to India and other emerging economies; and the increasing role of renewable energy alongside the resurgence of nuclear power. Traditional threats to oil and natural gas supply security are now accompanied by vulnerabilities in other areas, particularly critical mineral supply chains.
China stands out in WEO 2025 as a central actor in the global energy system. The report emphasizes China’s critical role in driving global electricity demand, particularly in renewable energy technologies. China controls a substantial portion of production capacity for solar panels, batteries and other energy technologies, providing both a price advantage and creating supply dependencies for other countries, thereby reinforcing geopolitical energy risks.
Critical minerals are another crucial area of concern. According to WEO 2025, the geographic concentration of refining capacity for minerals essential to the energy transition, such as lithium and rare earth elements, poses a serious risk.
China holds a dominant position in this sector, and the report highlights its export controls on rare earth elements and battery components. This constitutes a geopolitical advantage for China, as many countries’ energy transition plans rely on critical minerals sourced from China.
The primary risk associated with critical minerals is the high market concentration. One country dominates refining for 19 out of 20 strategic energy-related minerals, accounting for an average of approximately 70% of the market.
These minerals are essential not only for electricity grids, batteries and electric vehicles but also play a significant role in artificial intelligence chips, jet engines, defense systems and other strategic industries. As of November 2025, more than half of these strategic minerals are subject to some form of export control. The report emphasizes that energy security risks extend beyond fossil fuels to electricity infrastructure, cyber threats and climate-related disruptions. In this context, China’s dominance in energy technologies represents both an economic and strategic source of influence.
Although Russia is not the primary focus of the report, WEO 2025 contains significant indirect references. First, in the context of liquefied natural gas, the report notes that following Russia’s reduction of gas supplies to Europe via pipelines, liquefied natural gas (LNG) has become a priority in global gas trade. This indicates a geopolitical restructuring of gas supply risks, reshaping energy security.
Second, energy crises and uncertainties related to Russia are driving countries to pursue supply diversification. Scenarios addressing energy security emphasize that geopolitical vulnerabilities encourage countries to invest in both conventional fuels and new technologies. In this context, Russia continues to function as a geopolitical tool, representing both leverage and potential threat in energy supply considerations.
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2025 provides critical insights not only for understanding the future of the global energy system but also for countries dependent on energy imports, such as Türkiye. The report positions energy geopolitics as a central component of the global system and highlights vulnerabilities related to supply security, technology access and critical mineral availability. Türkiye, due to its geographic location and energy import profile, is both affected by these vulnerabilities and possesses the potential to influence them.
Russia and Azerbaijan are the main suppliers of Türkiye’s energy imports. WEO 2025 underscores Russia’s use of natural gas exports as a geopolitical instrument and emphasizes the importance of Türkiye’s strategies for diversifying pipeline and LNG supply. While long-term agreements such as Blue Stream and TurkStream enhance Türkiye’s supply security, they also necessitate diversification of Türkiye’s energy portfolio and the strengthening of risk management strategies.
As Türkiye invests in renewable energy and hydrogen technologies, it must consider the risk of becoming dependent on China’s production capacity in these sectors. Consequently, WEO 2025 demonstrates that energy security for Türkiye is not solely a matter of fossil fuel independence but is directly linked to technology, mineral supply and geopolitical developments in global energy markets.
The emergence of the Electric Age and the broader decarbonization agenda further shape Türkiye’s energy policies. According to WEO 2025, the resilience of electricity infrastructure and the success of energy transition plans depend on the continuity of critical mineral and technology flows. By increasing domestic energy production and diversifying its portfolio with LNG, renewables and hydrogen, Türkiye can secure its energy transition. This strategy is vital not only for achieving climate objectives but also for mitigating geopolitical risks.
