The "Blue Homeland-2026” exercise, conducted in the Black Sea, Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean from April 3 to 9, commenced with the participation of 120 ships, 50 combat aircraft and 15,000 personnel. The exercise aimed to evaluate the operational command and control effectiveness of the naval forces’ subordinate commands and to enhance the operational readiness of the units participating.

So, why is Türkiye’s exercise significant amid the chaos, where U.S. President Donald Trump has failed to secure a cease-fire in Ukraine, and the Iran war has yet to reach a definitive resolution?

Is Ankara testing its military deterrence and combat power in a joint sea-air operation? Why is the exercise being conducted simultaneously across the Black Sea, Aegean and Mediterranean? What military concepts and defense plans does the exercise aim to evaluate?

The most important question is whether Türkiye, under real combat conditions, possesses the capability to execute operations – within the framework of modern warfare doctrines – covering port facilities, warships, submarines, coastal defense, advanced naval air defense, naval reconnaissance and intelligence, advanced submarine defense, underwater assault, mine countermeasures, amphibious force deployment, close air support, and electronic and cyber warfare tactics.

As will be recalled, following the crisis between the U.S. and NATO, the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) actively participated in "Steadfast Dart 2026.”

At this point, Ankara has demonstrated that it is prepared to counter any weakening of the alliance by accurately analyzing the rift between the U.S. and European allies within NATO.

If we turn to today, in terms of timing and the chosen exercise areas, the "Blue Homeland-2026” exercise conveys diplomatic and political messages beyond mere military parameters. It reflects Türkiye’s resolute stance on military deterrence, the preservation of peace, and the protection of Turkish maritime rights and interests, while also showcasing the capabilities of its naval power.

Black Sea front

As is well known, Türkiye continues to maintain a delicate, symbiotic balance that not only prioritizes national security but also safeguards, fairly, the rights of riparian states in upholding the 1936 Montreux Straits regime. As the NATO member with the longest coastline on the Black Sea, Türkiye has prevented a potential NATO-Russia war by closing the Turkish Straits to military vessel traffic for the warring parties under Articles 19-21 of the Montreux Convention.

Furthermore, in accordance with the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS), Türkiye has made significant contributions to international maritime traffic safety.

With the Turkish Straits serving as the gateway for Russian gas and oil to the world market and having gained importance amid the new energy crisis triggered by the U.S.-Israel conflict, Türkiye ensures the strategic security of the Black Sea-Mediterranean maritime corridor.

Russia not only exports oil to the European market via the Turkish Straits but also exports gas through the Turkish Stream. Türkiye serves as a key transit route for Russian gas reaching Europe. Deliveries via the Turkish Stream pipeline increased by 22% year-on-year in March, reaching 55 million cubic meters per day.

These developments indicate that Türkiye could emerge as a more prominent actor in energy trade during a period when insecurities in energy routes have accelerated the search for alternatives.

However, last November, three Turkish ships were damaged in attacks reportedly carried out by Russia against two ports in Ukraine.

"Recent reciprocal attacks seriously threaten navigation safety in the region. Targeting commercial and civilian ships benefits no one. We have clearly conveyed our warnings to both sides on this matter,” President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on the matter.

Previously, in December, the Russian Maritime and River Transport Agency (Rosmorflot) reported that an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) had attacked the MIDVOLGA-2 tanker, but the vessel had not sustained serious damage.

Over the past 1.5 years, five UAVs have been found off Türkiye’s Black Sea coast. Most recently, shortly after an uncontrolled UAV washed ashore on the coast of Ordu and was neutralized by Turkish naval divers, the Turkish oil tanker Altura was attacked on March 26, 2026, by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and an unmanned surface vehicle (USV) 26 kilometers (16 miles) from the Bosporus.

Türkiye, perceiving the attack as a "sovereignty violation," officially deployed two frigates to the Black Sea to ensure navigation safety in the region.

The attack highlighted the risk that Türkiye could face a major environmental disaster, reminiscent of a historic maritime accident that occurred on Nov. 15, 1979, off the coast of Haydarpaşa in the Istanbul strait. In that incident, the Romanian tanker Independenta collided with the Greek freighter Evriali, resulting in the deaths of 43 crew members. A massive environmental disaster ensued due to a fire that raged for 27 days, underscoring the potential danger Türkiye could face in a similar scenario.

At the start of the war, Türkiye neutralized Soviet-era naval mines off its coasts. Currently, mine countermeasure operations are being conducted as a NATO task force in coordination with Romania and Bulgaria on a 24/7 rotation basis. SAS teams have reportedly identified and destroyed a total of 275 suspicious objects to date, including 10 mines, as well as 19 kamikaze drones and naval vessels.

During the recent visit to Istanbul by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President Erdoğan emphasized that Türkiye attaches great importance to navigation safety in the Black Sea and considers energy supply security critically important.

Given these developments, it can be said that Türkiye has taken care to meticulously uphold its policy of neutrality in accordance with the provisions of the 1936 Montreux Convention. Following the signing of a cease-fire and peace agreement with Russia and Ukraine, the "Ukraine Volunteers Coalition," to which 33 countries have expressed their intention to join, is planned as a multinational initiative not affiliated with NATO. The Maritime Component Command (MCC) mission of this force, aimed at safeguarding security and stability, will be carried out by the Turkish navy.

Additionally, within the framework of NATO’s newly established five Combined Task Forces (CTFs) – Atlantic, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Mediterranean and Black Sea – the command and hosting of the Black Sea CTF headquarters have been assigned to Türkiye.

In light of these developments, Türkiye is ensuring that the Black Sea remains free from threats posed by abandoned suspicious mines and improvised explosive devices (IEDs), while safeguarding the security of oil and gas tankers, grain ships and fishing vessels. The vital importance of this exercise is evident in the need to prevent geopolitical competition and security risks arising from the wars from spilling over into the Turkish Straits, to preserve peace and stability in the region, to avoid escalating tensions, and to ensure that security is primarily maintained by the navies of the littoral states.

The Mediterranean front

The waters of the Aegean and Mediterranean, where the exercise is being conducted, are witnessing the most intense military developments in recent times.

The U.S. has established air, sea and naval assets in Crete and southern Cyprus as a military intervention hub for operations against Iran. The crisis, which began with U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran, has brought new military operations into focus regarding the security of global energy supplies.

As a second strategic shift, following the impact of Iranian missiles on Cyprus, warships from at least six countries – including France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands – are being deployed southwest of the island, alongside Greek naval vessels and Greek F-16 fighter jets, at the Andreas Papandreou Air Base in Paphos. At the same time, the United Kingdom has reinforced its sovereign bases, deploying additional personnel and assets, including the air defense destroyer HMS Dragon.

The third critical development is that Greece has deployed a Patriot air defense system to Kerpe Island, which has a non-military status, as of March 2026. Greece also plans to deploy one to Semadirek Island, opposite Çanakkale. While these NATO-backed moves have drawn Türkiye’s reaction on the grounds of violating international agreements, the Greek government’s justification of these steps as defensive measures and in response to tensions in the Middle East is perceived by Ankara as a policy of encirclement.

From the perspective of international law, Greece’s deployment of troops and UAVs to the Aegean islands violates the provisions of the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne (Article 13) and the 1947 Paris Agreement, which stipulate that these islands (Lesbos, Chios, Samos, Achikeria and the Dodecanese) must have a "non-military status” (demilitarized).

Türkiye considers these steps to violate the treaties and has protested them via a diplomatic note.

On a positive note, NATO demonstrated its resolve to protect an ally under attack by intercepting four missiles fired from Iran toward Türkiye.

NATO and European allies’ reluctance to support a potential Iranian operation in the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns about the weakening of trans-Atlantic relations and sparked debates over the possibility of the U.S. unilaterally withdrawing from NATO. Ultimately, the comments regarding NATO’s weakening that emerged during the Baltic exercise could inform the discussions and arguments to be raised in the search for solutions at the NATO summit to be held in Ankara.

Ultimately, Türkiye is closely monitoring the increasingly tense situation in the blue waters of the three seas.

In this regard, during the "Blue Homeland-2026" exercise – which simulates the evolving, multidimensional threats and hybrid warfare environments of the geopolitical landscape – the TSK tested joint operation procedures using land, sea and air elements, along with live ammunition and the latest modern weapon systems, to calibrate their firepower effectiveness.

As a second observation, this exercise can be interpreted as a maritime demonstration that Türkiye will not permit a "fait accompli" in the Aegean under the pretext of any regional conflict, nor will it allow the de facto alteration of the legal status quo and delicate balances established by the Lausanne and Paris Agreements.

The third strategic observation is that, in the context of the Iran war and its aftermath, Ankara’s "guarantor role” in Cyprus, enshrined in the London and Zurich Agreements, and the principle of its preservation in the Mediterranean, remain immutable. Türkiye will always stand by the people of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). This includes protection against missile or other attacks that may come from Iran or other countries. In this regard, it can be noted that the Turkish navy’s readiness level for combat under changing political and military challenges will be assessed through the continuous operations scheduled to continue until April 9.