Three elections in two weeks have delivered one unmistakable message: Germany’s political center is losing its ability to hold the country together.

After the AfD’s landslide victory in Saxony-Anhalt, the far-right party has now emerged as the strongest force in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. At the same time, Berlin has handed first place to the Left Party, led by Turkish-origin candidate Elif Eralp. Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats, meanwhile, have suffered another bruising night.

These are not merely regional protest votes. They amount to a broader verdict on a federal government that is in office but increasingly struggles to provide political direction. Germany’s political landscape is being shaped at the margins: on the right by the AfD, and on the left by a resurgent Left Party.

Merz’s CDU: from people’s party to political remnant

In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD stands at 37.9% in the latest projections, ahead of the Social Democrats (SPD) at 35.7%. The CDU is hovering around the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.

For a party that once considered itself Germany’s natural governing force, this is a political earthquake. The CDU has not simply lost. It has almost disappeared between the AfD and the SPD.

Merz himself called the result a "disaster.” Yet, he immediately insisted that he would remain both party chairperson and chancellor. His argument is clear: Germany needs reforms, and there is no way back.

That is, in principle, a defensible position. A chancellor cannot resign after every electoral defeat. But it also reveals Merz’s central problem: he still has determination, yet he is rapidly losing authority.

After the CDU’s historic collapse in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD won 43.8% and the CDU fell to 17.2%, the party has now suffered another severe setback. In Berlin, the CDU came second with 19.1%, but it nevertheless lost its claim to lead the capital to the Left Party, which reached around 25%. As Reuters reported, the CDU’s result in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is its worst in a state election since 1949.

This is no longer just a crisis of weak regional branches. It is a chancellor’s crisis. Voters increasingly associate the CDU not with stability, economic competence and social security, but with a government that raised expectations and has so far delivered little tangible relief.

Chancellor under pressure

The CDU now faces a difficult dilemma. It has a chancellor whose authority is weakening, but no convincing replacement who could immediately unite the party.

Names such as North Rhine-Westphalia’s Hendrik Wüst, Schleswig-Holstein’s Daniel Günther and Bavaria’s Markus Söder are often mentioned in Berlin. Yet, none is an undisputed national leader. Wüst remains focused on his own state, Günther embodies a more liberal brand of conservatism, and Söder, as Bavaria’s CSU leader, is still viewed by many CDU figures as a powerbroker rather than a natural chancellor.

Merz therefore benefits, paradoxically, from his party’s lack of alternatives. His position is vulnerable, but not yet untenable. Because there is no clear successor, he can attempt to outlast the crisis and present his reform agenda as an act of political resolve.

But that strategy can only work if the CDU-SPD coalition starts producing results that people actually feel in their daily lives: on energy costs, rents, taxes, pensions and economic security. Otherwise, every election will become another referendum on Merz, and every defeat another argument for replacing him.

Margins are winning

The AfD’s victory in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern once again demonstrates how deep dissatisfaction runs in eastern Germany. The party benefits from concerns over living costs, economic prospects, migration and Germany’s policy on the war in Ukraine.

The AfD is unlikely to govern in the state, as other parties have ruled out cooperation. But that does not alter the political reality: a party that Germany’s domestic intelligence authorities have classified in parts as right-wing extremist is no longer merely a protest party in the east. For millions of voters, it has become their first choice.

Berlin tells the other side of the same story. Here, the AfD did not win. The Left Party did.

Eralp represents a younger, urban and migration-conscious Left Party that has centred its campaign on housing, inequality and the pressure created by soaring rents. Her success is also the success of a clear social message. While the CDU, SPD and Greens often appeared to be managing existing problems, the Left promised a fundamental shift, including the socialisation of large housing companies.

Germany’s new political polarity

Germany is not simply moving from left to right. It is being pulled apart.

The AfD is gaining support with a nationalist, anti-immigration and anti-establishment narrative. The Left Party is gaining ground with a social, tenant-focused and system-critical narrative. Between them, Germany’s traditional parties are losing their former dominance.

The CDU is losing parts of its conservative base to the AfD. The SPD can remain competitive in the east only where strong regional personalities, such as Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s Manuela Schwesig, are able to mobilise voters. The Greens remain relevant in many cities, but they no longer command the same influence as the central force of progressive change.

That is the real message of this election Sunday: Germany’s old political centre has not disappeared, but it has become defensive. It reacts rather than leads. It warns against the extremes without convincingly addressing the social and political conditions that make those extremes stronger.

For Merz and his government, the decisive phase begins now. If the coalition cannot reduce social insecurity and political distrust, the AfD and the Left Party will continue to benefit – each in its own way and among its own electorate.

The elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are therefore not regional side stories. They are a warning for the years ahead: Germany is becoming more polarised, its governments more fragile, and its political centre will have to prove that it can still govern.