Where is China's role in the Middle East heading?
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China has become a significant player in the Middle East in the past decade at a time when the U.S.‘ long-standing dominance over the region is gradually declining



Relations between China and the Middle East date back around 2,000 years when trade played a vital role in improving relations between China and the Arab lands. This commercial activity, which mostly involved jade, silk and other luxury goods, went on for centuries and became part of what is now known as the Silk Road. Today, the world is witnessing a restoration of that ancient trading relationship between the civilizations – except that rapid economic growth and development in the region have replaced the jade and silk trade.

At the beginning of the 21st century, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) presided over one of the most remarkable economic expansions in modern history. In order to sustain this growth, the Chinese government not only needed to find new markets for Chinese exports; it also had to secure additional energy sources to keep factories and the economy as a whole running. This led the CCP to adopt the "going out" strategy in 2001. This strategy called for expanding investment activity outward, taking on major foreign construction projects, and developing overseas natural resource supplies. The Middle East, with its unexploited emerging markets and abundance of oil, caught the attention of the Chinese government.

Prior to 2001, China maintained a limited presence in the region, and its activities consisted mainly of oil purchases and arms sales. Since then, however, an increasing number of Chinese officials, businesspeople and private citizens have answered the call to "go out" and have streamed into the Middle East.

Between 2005 and 2009, trade between the Middle East and China increased by 87%, and Middle Eastern exports to China grew by 25%. The Chinese investments in the Middle East also increased from $1 billion in 2005 to $11 billion in 2009. Besides, Chinese construction companies played an important role in developing major projects in the region, like the Mecca monorail project which went into operation in 2010.

As the Middle Eastern states are rich in oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) resources, 40% of China’s oil imports come from the Middle East and in 2015, it surpassed the U.S. to become the world’s largest crude oil importer.

In 2016, when China's President Xi Jinping visited the Middle East, the CCP released China’s "Arab Policy Paper," which highlighted the Chinese vision for the region by introducing the "1+2+3 cooperation pattern" in which energy security forms the core of this pattern, investment and trade follows, and developing nuclear energy comes later.

In 2018, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Oman "were Beijing’s second, fourth and fifth-largest crude oil suppliers."

As China needs Middle Eastern markets to export its manufactured goods, and in turn, the Middle Eastern states need China for oil exports, trade ties between them were growing steadily and in 2018, trade between China and the Arab states stood at $244.3 billion, as reported by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.

On the other hand, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) announced in 2013 forms a strategically important crossroads for trade routes and sea lanes linking Asia to Europe and Africa, which will place China at the center of global trade networks.

Concerning China’s BRI interests in the region, it has signed BRI agreements with 21 states of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, including 18 Arab states. The Chinese have begun to invest in several construction projects in this regard in these states. Beijing’s push to fill some of the U.S.’ abrogated economic leadership in the Middle East was reflected in the July 2018 China-Arab States Cooperation Forum in which Beijing elevated its relationship with the Arab world to a "strategic partnership" by emphasizing that it plans to leverage economic development to combat the security and humanitarian issues of the region. A financial consortium between Arab and Chinese banks, backed by a $3 billion fund, has been established to facilitate this development, with specific focuses on oil and gas, nuclear and clean energy.

In 2018, the MENA region placed second in terms of the total investments received by any region from China and by 2019, the total Chinese investments in the region totaled $177 billion and the bulk of the money, i.e. $70 billion, flowed into the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Beijing signed a 25-year cooperation deal with Tehran in May and promised to invest $400 billion in the Iranian economy over the period of the deal, enabling Iran to be a part of the flagship BRI.

China is emerging as a crucial development actor in the region, through both direct investment and development and its economic importance to the region has the potential to outweigh that of the U.S. and Europe.

Military footprint

In addition to economic relations, China expanded its military footprint in the region by providing security through multilateral operations. In 2006, China was one of the first countries to contribute to the U.N. peacekeeping forces in Lebanon and in 2008, it sent its navy vessels to the Gulf of Aden to take part in anti-piracy operations following a resolution of the U.N.

Moreover, throughout the 2000s, China exported arms to the region, thus, expanding trade in the military sphere as well. Accordingly, China increased its military operations in the MENA region during the 2011 Libyan civil war when the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) sent its naval and air force units to evacuate 35,000 Chinese citizens stranded in Libya.

Besides, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLA Navy) built its first overseas base in Djibouti in 2017 for anti-piracy purposes and to serve China’s important geostrategic interests in the Horn of Africa.

In 2012 China increased its military foothold in the region through peacekeeping operations by contributing 700 peacekeeping forces to the U.N. mission in Sudan and, in 2013, the Chinese army escorted U.N. ships that were carrying chemical weapons out of Syria to the island of Cyprus.

Moreover, China has been trying to tap into the Middle East’s defense markets and according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report on global arms transfers between 2016-20, China increased its weapon exports to the Middle East to 7%, compared to the 3.8% in 2011-15 period. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and Iraq are some of the biggest purchasers of Chinese arms from the Middle East. Riyadh even confirmed in 2014 that it had bought Chinese Dong Feng-21 ballistic missiles.

As of 2018, China was the largest contributor of peacekeeping forces to the MENA region with about 1,800 soldiers. A report by American intelligence agencies last year showed that Saudi Arabia has been manufacturing its own ballistic missiles with China’s help. According to officials, Riyadh had sought help from the PLA Rocket Force, the Chinese military’s missile force. A month earlier, the U.S. pointed out that China was secretly constructing a military base in a port in the UAE.

Neutral engagement

Aside from its economic plans and its political-security presence, Beijing is careful to avoid replicating what it sees as Western intervention in the Middle East and puts forward a neutral engagement with all countries, including those that are at odds with each other on the basis of mutually beneficial agreements as China‘s vision of a multipolar order in the region is based on non-interference in, and partnerships with, other states – one in which the country will promote stability and peace through development.

By adopting a "zero enemy policy," China has been able to maintain balanced relations in the MENA region and signed comprehensive strategic partnership agreements with Egypt and Algeria in 2014, with Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2016, and with the UAE in 2018.

As China’s leadership in the Middle East continues to grow, Beijing will likely look to manage increasing regional expectations to invest in the game by pursuing a mediation approach regarding issues like the Israel-Palestine crisis and the Saudi-Iranian rivalry to realize its role as a responsible power. The confluence of the various security, economic and political dynamics means that the Middle East is accordingly positioned to be a key setting where China’s envisioned paradigm of global leadership will be promoted.