Türkiye’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) is set to convene over a thousand delegates this weekend to hold intraparty elections that will either reelect or replace its controversial Chairperson Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu some five months ahead of the local elections in March 2024.

Over the past three months, party members picked 1,368 delegates in 81 provinces who are traveling to the capital Ankara on Nov. 4-5 for the 57th CHP congress to elect a new chair, an executive council and a high disciplinary board under the banner of "democracy and unity" amid a growing divide.

Fractions have plagued Türkiye’s oldest political party since the CHP leader lost a six-party opposition bloc’s best chance yet to unseat incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in May’s general elections.

Having also ceded the parliamentary majority to the ruling Justice and Development Party-led (AK Party) People’s Alliance, the Nation Alliance dissolved the next month, with the second-biggest partner, the Good Party (IP), walking out seemingly for good.

Kılıçdaroğlu has been endlessly criticized for the bloc’s failure and repeatedly urged to step down.

Unrest has snowballed into an intraparty conflict between his supporters and faultfinders locked in a power struggle over CHP leadership, as even Kılıçdaroğlu’s trusted allies like Ekrem Imamoğlu, who became Istanbul mayor in a surprise 2019 win, came out of the woodwork demanding accountability.

A new leadership in CHP, which would replace Kılıçdaroğlu’s 13-year reign, could energize opposition masses in time for mayoral polls. However, the party is still looking at grim odds as back-to-back election losses culminate in frustration among its members and supporters.

Kılıçdaroğlu vs change

Özgür Özel, Örsan Kunter Öymen and Ünal Karahasan have so far challenged Kılıçdaroğlu. A candidate needs approval signatures of at least 5% of all elected delegates, meaning 69 members, to be able to run for CHP chairpersonship officially.

The race looks set to come down to Kılıçdaroğlu, who is likely to be nominated by delegates, and Özel, the only other candidate who would be able to pass the threshold.

In a provincial congress last month, Kılıçdaroğlu’s vocal dissidents, led by pro-change deputy Özgür Çelik, won the Istanbul office, which notably produced 196 delegates for the big congress. His victory has given rise to the question of whether Kılıçdaroğlu’s critics can wrestle control of the CHP from him.

Özel has been lamenting a "political blindness" in his party and an "emotional disconnect" with voters.

The CHP has lost all 12 elections it competed in the past 13 years, which Özel criticizes as "settling for municipal victories."

He is adamant about inspiring change for a "more dynamic and younger" CHP and often assures his fellow members he "will not leave the CHP in destitution."

Çelik on Tuesday this week explicitly endorsed Özel, saying 185 of the Istanbul delegates have put in signatures backing Özel as chairperson.

"This is the willpower of the people of Istanbul, as well. We can clearly see the demand for change on the street," Çelik told reporters.

According to Özel, Istanbul reflects Türkiye as a whole, and there is a growing countrywide chorus chanting for change, "which gives us hope."

Speaking to a pro-opposition television network last week, however, was Kılıçdaroğlu claiming he would leave the party to "a well-informed social democrat" without specifying whether it would be a person or a goal.

While sources close to his administration argued that he meant the CHP’s new direction would be on the axis of social democracy, Kılıçdaroğlu himself is expected to clarify his remarks and reveal his opinion of the presidential candidate who will compete in 2028 this weekend.

He will likely strive to end internal debates and call for a unified effort to win the upcoming mayoral elections.

At Tuesday’s central executive committee meeting, he urged members to preserve the image of unity and implement measures to avoid physical altercations, something that occurred at the Istanbul congress last month.

Odds of reelection

On March 31, 2024, some 64 million eligible voters are due to vote for new mayors and other office-holders in 81 provinces, and recouping in time is vital for the CHP’s chances of keeping Türkiye’s top cities – Istanbul, Ankara and even historical stronghold Izmir – in which it currently governs some 26 million of the Turkish population.

After its six-party coalition fell apart, the CHP is seemingly without allies, especially its biggest partner, Good Party (IP), and unexpected friend, Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), whose endorsement in 2019 helped put CHP mayors in Istanbul and Ankara for the first time in 25 years since the AK Party has been in power.

The IP and the HDP, widely condemned for alleged links to the PKK terrorist group, have announced plans to compete with their own mayoral candidates.

The CHP and the IP have already clashed over ideological differences, and IP leader Meral Akşener has opposed Kılıçdaroğlu’s nomination from the get-go, even temporarily walking out of the bloc in an outburst that eroded her favor in public before the polls.

Both of their deputies have also grown "resentful" over the election of 39 parliamentary candidates from other parties CHP aligned with in May, which cut into both CHP and the IP’s seats.

Since then, Akşener has renounced the Nation Alliance but also teased the possibility of another electoral "cooperation."

Whether leadership is renewed or not, pundits say the CHP’s odds are low without the HDP’s endorsement and because of the unpopularity of both Kılıçdaroğlu and Akşener.