In recent months, tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated, and Türkiye offered mediation at one point to defuse them. Geneva was eventually chosen as the venue of negotiations. Shortly after those meetings, however, the United States and Israel launched attacks targeting Iran on Saturday.

The strikes, which killed several senior Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, heightened security concerns across Iran and the wider region. Furkan Kaya, an associate professor from Yeditepe University, warns that such a war would undermine efforts to establish stability in the region and pose significant risks for Türkiye on multiple fronts.

"Instability in Iran, a wartime environment and the continuation of the conflict pose a highly dangerous situation in terms of Türkiye’s national security interests. Our objective as Türkiye is to ensure Iran’s territorial integrity. Regardless of the disagreements we may have with Iran, and despite differences on certain issues, what matters most is the safety of the Iranian people and the preservation of Iran’s territorial integrity. This is because Iran’s territorial integrity is vital to safeguarding Türkiye’s own territorial integrity,” Kaya told Daily Sabah on Monday.

The United States and Israel carried out coordinated airstrikes across Iran early Saturday, targeting military sites, intelligence centers and government-linked facilities, in what U.S. President Donald Trump described as a "large-scale combat operation.” The strikes prompted Iran to retaliate with missile and drone attacks against Israel and U.S. military installations in the Gulf, dramatically escalating regional tensions. Trump said Washington had sought to reach an agreement and accused Iran of developing missiles capable of threatening Europe, while urging Iranians to "take control of your destiny.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the operation aimed to create conditions for Iranians to "determine their own future.”

Drawing attention to nearly 2,500 suspected Daesh members who were transferred from Syria to northern Iraq under U.S. coordination and sent to an area controlled by Bafel Talabani, who is described as a key figure linked to the PKK terrorist group’s activities in Iraq, Kaya argued that the detainees could have remained in secure prisons in Syria, where they were unlikely to escape.

He further suggested such militants could potentially be mobilized in urban terror attacks, adding that any such scenario would require weakening Iran politically, eroding public trust in the state and creating broader instability within Iran.

For such a scenario to unfold, "Iran would first need to be destabilized,” Kaya asserted, "Since the attacks began, opinion pieces and public statements including remarks by evangelical and pro-Zionist groups in the U.S. as well as comments by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have repeatedly called on Iranians to take to the streets, rise up against the state and overthrow the regime.”

Such rhetoric reflects the belief that an external imperial power can deliver liberation, a notion Kaya said has been tested before in Iraq and Libya, underlining that past experience shows no imperial power brings freedom to another nation.

Iran’s Red Crescent recently said the death toll from the U.S.-Israeli attacks had risen to 555 across 131 residential areas, according to the semi-official Fars News Agency. An earlier statement by Red Crescent spokesperson Mojtaba Khaledi on Feb. 28 had reported 201 dead and 747 wounded.

Iran’s Education Ministry also said 170 teachers and students were killed in the strikes, while state television reported that 153 students and teachers died in an attack on a girls’ elementary school in Minab, in Hormozgan province.

While pointing out the potential impacts to Türkiye and outcomes of the war, Kaya noted that as fighting between Iran, Israel and the U.S. escalated, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have engaged in intensive shuttle diplomacy in an effort to prevent a wider regional war. Despite those efforts, clashes have begun and their duration remains uncertain.

He also warned that the conflict could trigger migration pressures, prompting Türkiye to tighten border security measures to prevent a potential influx.

As fighting between Iran, Israel and the United States escalates, Turkish officials say President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have engaged in intensive shuttle diplomacy in an effort to prevent a wider regional war. Despite those efforts, clashes have begun and their duration remains uncertain. Analysts warn that the conflict could trigger migration pressures, prompting Türkiye to tighten border security measures to prevent a potential influx.

"If Israel’s strikes on Iran were part of a broader strategy that could eventually place Türkiye in the crosshairs, it would not come as a surprise, suggesting that destabilizing northern Iran could, in theory, aim to reshape the balance along Türkiye’s southern border.”

With attacks increasing, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan engaged in phone diplomacy with his counterparts in Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Syria, Egypt and Indonesia, discussing steps to end the attacks.

Moreover, Kaya also drew attention to Israel’s expansionist policies, which may amount to rhetorical challenges toward Türkiye, however, he described declaring war against Türkiye on the ground would be "recklessness.”

"The importance Türkiye has placed on its national defense industry is now better understood, including why it has invested heavily in developing its own capabilities across air, land and sea through domestic resources. None of the Gulf countries, in my view, can be considered fully secure because of their dependence on the United States. However, with the strategic initiatives and advances Türkiye has undertaken over the past 20 years, I would say the country is prepared for any adverse scenario.” "Israel, in this view, seeks to encircle Türkiye from the south, and the July 15 coup attempt carried out by the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ) network was seen as part of that broader plan. Had the coup succeeded, a garrison-style terror state under Israeli influence would already have been established along Türkiye’s southern border. Türkiye thwarted that effort, cut off terror networks in the region and has since made significant progress in stabilizing northern Syria, Kaya also added.

Noting that Israel is unlikely to declare a direct war against Türkiye, it could seek to weaken or destabilize the country through indirect means. He concluded that the recent operations of Türkiye’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) against Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad, inside Türkiye are critically important for Türkiye’s national security.

Last month, Turkish authorities arrested two individuals who were previously detained on allegations of working for the Israeli spy agency Mossad. Mehmet Budak Derya and Veysel Kerimoğlu, who had been under surveillance for some time and were captured in a joint operation by the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT), the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office and the Istanbul Police Department.

The court ruled that the suspects be arrested on charges of "obtaining information that must remain confidential for the security or political interests of the state for purposes of political or military espionage."