For the first time in over a decade, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is heading to Egypt on Feb. 14 for a meeting with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi that could normalize long-strained ties and ultimately help ease increasingly alarming tensions in their immediate region.

Intensifying communication and cooperation between Türkiye and Egypt, the two power players of the Middle East, would both help reduce regional tensions and establish a permanent, sustainable framework for true regional stability, according to Ferhat Pirinççi, an expert on the Middle East, Turkish foreign policy and a professor of International Politics at Uludağ University.

"Normalization is a necessity for regional conjecture," Pirinççi told Daily Sabah in an exclusive interview.

Pointing to various hot zones like the Eastern Mediterranean, the Palestinian cause, the Syrian civil war, East Africa and notably the Libyan crisis where Ankara and Cairo have locked horns, Pirinççi argued that development in Turkish-Egyptian ties would after a certain point contribute to the establishment of stability in these regions and align the interests of two nations.

Turning point

"Compared to Ankara’s efforts to mend ties with other nations, Turkish-Egyptian normalization has been cautious but progressed with surer steps so far and Erdoğan’s visit will certainly be a significant turning point in that process," he said.

"It should be noted that since diplomatic dialogue resumed, we are currently seeing a period where normalization is perhaps the most needed, in terms of regional tensions," Pirinççi stressed.

"I believe both sides will make the best of this turning point."

Erdoğan’s visit will be his first since Ankara and Cairo upgraded relations by appointing ambassadors last year, after maintaining diplomacy at the level of charge d'affaires since the 2013 military coup, which overthrew the late Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi.

After Morsi was toppled, diplomatic ties were downgraded but economic ties remained largely unharmed. In 2022, Türkiye was the largest importer of Egyptian goods, totaling $4 billion. In 2023, Cairo allowed Turkish citizens to obtain a visa on arrival, paving the way for advanced tourism.

Normalization accelerated after Erdoğan and el-Sissi shook hands in Doha at the World Cup in 2022 and gained further pace following the deadly February 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye, Erdoğan’s reelection in May and the appointment of ambassadors to each other’s capitals in July.

Since then, the two leaders met on the sidelines of the G-20 leaders summit in September and held conversations over the phone, particularly on the latest round of the Palestine-Israel conflict that broke out on Oct. 7.

Cairo and Ankara have backed opposing factions in Libya’s yet unresolved conflict, and also over maritime borders in the gas-rich Eastern Mediterranean. However, Türkiye has dismissed claims of rivalry with Egypt in the region and reiterated willingness for more cooperation.

Pirinççi believes neither country wants their relations to "be hostage to a single agenda because the benefit of cooperation far outweighs the cost of no cooperation."

"Therefore, developing bilateral ties appears rational and aligned with the interests of both nations," he said.

Palestinian cause

The normalization could reflect on the Palestinian cause, as well, since Türkiye and Egypt, holding a key border crossing to the Gaza enclave, are essential players in the current conflict.

"It’s obvious Israel’s aggressive policies are no longer sustainable," Pirinççi said.

"Dialogue and cooperation between Türkiye and Egypt therefore could help push for steps to end Israel’s unstainable occupation policy and find an effective, permanent and fair solution to the Palestinian issue."

Including in talks with el-Sissi, Erdoğan often reiterates the need for Muslim unity to end Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip that have killed at least 28,000 Palestinians in the past three months.

Türkiye and Egypt have worked together to deliver humanitarian assistance to Gaza through the Rafah crossing, while their top diplomats have sought to strengthen the shifting global stance to stop Israel as part of the Gaza contact group of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).

In terms of asserting a concrete attitude, Pirinççi believes once diplomatic ties are restored, Ankara and Cairo could ultimately make Israel sit on the negotiating table or help the Palestinian side acquire more concrete, clear achievements.

Libyan factor

As for the multipartite political deadlock in Libya, Pirinççi said there has been a stalemate in recent months with no solution in sight yet and Egypt’s sensitivity on the issue is "well known."

"Türkiye and Egypt could act to ensure stability in Libya and the upcoming visit could result in the sides deciding the Libyan crisis should no longer be a source of tension," Pirinççi mused.

"The best case scenario is of course Türkiye and Egypt acting in unison for forging and preserving a stable structure in Libya."

Libya has had little peace since it split into rival factions in 2014 between eastern-based Gen. Khalifa Haftar and his illegitimate forces, backed by Egypt, and the U.N.-backed government in Tripoli. Türkiye’s support for the Tripoli government was critical in repelling the Haftar forces’ offensive to capture the capital Tripoli and led to a period of stability resulting in the formation of the unity government.

Ankara and Cairo have since attempted a joint road map to hold elections in the country, but the political process has been fraught. The last major international attempt to break the deadlock, via a 2020 political forum, led to the formation of the current interim government and the road map for the December 2021 election that was thwarted by internal political disputes.

Cairo has started engaging in dialogue with the Tripoli government since last year and Ankara extended a motion to keep Turkish troops in Libya for another two years last November, first deployed in 2020 after the Libyan government made a formal request for help.

Türkiye also has several security and maritime boundary pacts with Libya, which grant Ankara drilling rights over a portion of the natural resource-rich Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Drone deal

Earlier this week, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed in an interview Ankara would sell a batch of its increasingly popular armed drones to Cairo.

"Normalization in our relations is important for Egypt to have certain technologies. We have an agreement to provide (Egypt) unmanned air vehicles and other technologies," Fidan said, without further elaborating.

Pirinççi believes the deal, signaling further cooperation in the defense industry, is a "symbolic" move.

Pointing to Egypt’s certain security gaps, particularly on its borders and in restraining the actions or mobility of "rebel" groups, he said Türkiye’s "leadership in the field is well-known."

"We also know what kind of conditions or leverages they proposed while selling other weapons and missiles," he said.

"This sale could be interpreted as a sign of the importance Türkiye attaches to weapons sales and its bilateral relations with Egypt."