The irreversible split within the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) amid a legal gridlock is both the beginning of the end and the end of the beginning for Özgür Özel. Boasting a rare success for his party in the 2024 municipal elections, the former pharmacist who made his real foray into politics only in 2009 may finally have a party truly his own. The question now is whether he will be as popular as the chair of Türkiye’s oldest party.

Özel publicly vowed to stay in CHP until the very end and he was the "last man standing” when lawyers of reinstated Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu arrived at the party’s headquarters with an eviction notice and the company of police squads. As his supporters resisted the eviction by setting up barricades and spraying police with fire extinguishers, Özel emerged hours later from his office, leaving the building in a calm manner but with a grim face. He repeatedly called CHP "father’s abode,” an affectionate description for the family home in Anatolia.

He initially opposed the idea of forming a new party with his supporters, which allegedly outnumber those of Kılıçdaroğlu, but as his options are exhausting, he started voicing the idea more and more in recent days.

While Özel maintains that his primary objective remains a multi-front political and legal struggle within the CHP, he has openly admitted to advancing a "Plan Z" to ensure a backup political entity is fully prepared. Political pundits view this dual strategy not as a genuine effort to offer a fresh alternative to the electorate, but rather as a defensive maneuver by the sidelined leadership to secure their political survival, prevent complete liquidation, and maintain their grip on CHP voters who are more left-leaning than supporters of Kılıçdaroğlu. The rush to build a backup structure reflects growing desperation within the Özel camp as internal party organs slip back under old management.

To bypass the lengthy, rigorous bureaucratic demands and strict provincial organization thresholds required to register a new political party under Turkish law, Özel’s team is pursuing an opportunistic approach by targeting established smaller parties, though these talks of "merging” the Özel camp with existing parties are never openly confirmed.

Building a grassroots movement from the ground up is not a big challenge for Özel as he appears to have the support of "old-school” CHP figures, including former chairs and their associates. Yet, taking over an existing party is far more easier. One of them was the Democratic Left Party (DSP), which was founded by the late Prime Minister Bülent Ecevit. Ecevit himself has left CHP to found DSP after a sharp disagreement with İsmet İnönü. DSP was back in the opposition after the death of Ecevit and allied with the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party). DSP’s chairman Önder Aksakal closed the door to CHP in recent remarks, saying that his party was "not a place where dirty politicians can be cleaned,” referring to vote-buying allegations that cost Özel his seat.

Switching to a new party with lawmakers supporting him would allow Özel to bypass regulatory delays and immediately field independent parliamentary lists or mount a presidential campaign in the event that the government calls a sudden, early election. Yet, the government and its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), insist on holding the election in time, that is, the year 2028.

Compounding this backup planning, Özel has recently intensified his rhetoric, signaling that his patience with internal party mechanisms is nearing its end. In recent public statements, Özel openly acknowledged the mounting pressure from his supporters, stating, "The road has ended. I will ask the nation which way to go." He noted a stark shift in public sentiment, claiming that while 90% of his supporters initially urged him never to leave the CHP, the ground reality has shifted to a 51-to-49 split between those telling him to "stay and fight” and those urging him to forge his own path. It is unclear whether this was his first intention all along and as Kılıçdaroğlu appears intent to remain in office, Özel may use this "public sentiment” excuse to justify a farewell to "father’s abode.”

In remarks to Birgün on Friday, Özel revealed the extent of his political calculations by explicitly removing himself from future presidential candidacy equations, a move critics describe as a tactical surrender disguised as a gesture for political stability. Özel has long touted former Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu as CHP’s future presidential candidate and even opened a "presidential campaign office” for Imamoğlu as the latter languished in jail in pre-trial detention on charges of rampant corruption at the municipality. When Imamoğlu’s chances of leaving the prison any time soon dimmed, Özel at one point said he may run himself for future elections, before changing his mind. It is unclear whether Imamoğlu, who is also stripped of his university diploma (a requirement for presidential candidacy), will be eligible or out of prison to run in the election and Özel has no other name to readily nominate if he establishes a new party, other than himself.

As the Özel camp awaits a decisive ruling from the Supreme Court of Appeals on the absolute nullification case, which removed him from office, his loyalists are collecting signatures to force an extraordinary CHP congress as soon as possible, believing Özel will be elected once again as head of the party. Breaking away with CHP may bring in votes for Özel, but it can also clarify who really supported him and sustain the divide among the voter base of the main opposition.

In all cases, Özel’s political future is at risk. A loss to AK Party in the next election with a new party may shatter his image as a unifying force amid CHP voters disillusioned with Kılıçdaroğlu and decided to support him. A new party will also have to compete with others on the fringes of Turkish politics if Özel decides to create his own brand of politics inspired by CHP’s pillar principles. Without the institutional brand of CHP, Özel’s new party will have little difference from other opposition parties adhering to "social democrat” policies. DSP is among them.

Kılıçdaroğlu’s future

Kılıçdaroğlu will likely cling to his seat at CHP if Özel consents to found a new party. In this context, the new chair of CHP, who initially appeared unwilling to continue as the leader, may try his hand in politics again and even take the party to the presidential race in 2028.

Currently occupied with expulsion of the pro-Özel camp, Kılıçdaroğlu is also re-establishing a new administration comprised of former top figures of the party.

He hinted at the new direction of the party in a recent speech and in his tweets, where he adapted a political discourse almost too similar to the ruling party. The significant differences emerge, certainly, with AK Party but Kılıçdaroğlu seems to be trying too hard to deepen his political divide with "social democrats” of Özel, whose ideals are far closer to European liberal movements than Kılıçdaroğlu. Kılıçdaroğlu seems more closer to the "Eurasia” wing of Turkish politics in his new tenure, adapting a tone that is too nationalist for the taste of the Özel supporters. This new tone brought him closer to the Homeland Party of Doğu Perinçek, a politician advocating for Türkiye to align strictly with Russia and China. A recent meeting with Perinçek and an article he penned for a magazine associated with the Homeland Party show these may be the first signs of a new alliance between CHP and Homeland Party in the future. Homeland’s vote rate is too low, but pursuing alliances with other smaller parties as well can boost Kılıçdaroğlu’s CHP. This can even diminish the chances of an Özel-led new party in the next election.

Kılıçdaroğlu is unlikely to run for the presidency again if he stays at the helm of CHP and some media outlets suggest he may consider Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş for that position. He has announced Yavaş as his future vice president while campaigning for the 2023 general elections. Yavaş sided with Özel during the recent divide, but he never confirmed whether he would join Özel if he establishes a new party.