Secrecy and silence have fueled rumors about the future of Özgür Özel after he announced that he would establish a new, as-yet-unnamed party. The man who delivered the first tangible success in decades for the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) in the 2024 local elections remains confident of winning the next vote. However, hours after his historic declaration, few people publicly endorsed his new bid.

Among those mentioned was Mansur Yavaş, the Ankara mayor, who is widely viewed as a popular figure and a potential future presidential contender. While the mayors of Adana and Mersin, whom Özel mentioned in his speech on Tuesday while calling on them to join him, signaled their intention to remain in the CHP, Yavaş maintained his silence on Wednesday. Cemil Tugay, the mayor of the CHP stronghold of Izmir in western Türkiye, also reportedly chose to remain in the party.

Earlier on Wednesday, Özel held talks at a hotel in Ankara with the party assembly and central executive board of his new party, as well as lawmakers who have remained loyal to him since he was ousted from the CHP chairmanship in May. His predecessor, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who was reinstated by a court ruling, also convened the CHP's Central Executive Board on Wednesday.

Özel initially decided to remain in the CHP and challenged Kılıçdaroğlu to hold a new intra-party vote, confident that he would defeat him again. However, as the process dragged on and public pressure mounted, Özel changed his mind and began working to establish a new party.

The party, rumored to be named "Istiklal" ("Independence"), is expected to be ready in time for the 2028 presidential election. However, it will not be eligible to receive Treasury funding allocated to most political parties under Turkish law, which stipulates that a newly established party must secure at least 3% of the vote in the first election it contests. This means Özel and his associates will have to rely on private donations, which could prove challenging.

Key figures close to Özel have also been accused of buying votes in the 2023 intra-party election that ended Kılıçdaroğlu's leadership. Özel's name has also surfaced in an investigation involving CHP mayors who allegedly confessed to handing over large sums of cash, either personally or through intermediaries, to Özel and his aides to secure their candidacies. Moreover, CHP municipalities have already suffered reputational damage, as multiple mayors and municipal bureaucrats stand accused of running criminal networks involved in bribery and tender rigging.

Media outlets reported that Özel's new party could secure up to 90 seats in Parliament through defections from the CHP. If that happens, it would become the second-largest party in Parliament.

In his speech on Tuesday – his last as the CHP parliamentary group chair following his removal from the position in May – Özel said the split within the CHP stemmed from disagreements over the party's future amid its declining public support. He said some within the party argued for maintaining the current course and focusing on the next local elections, while others warned that the CHP risked losing voters unless it embraced change.

Describing the current state of the main opposition, Özel said: "People will not go into another local election with us if we continue like this. If we act this way, they will turn their backs on us. Voter turnout will fall to a historic low. Don't you see the polls? The party has dropped to around 13% or 14% and continues to decline."

He added: "A major defeat is coming. After another local election disaster, people will lose hope in the ballot box altogether. We have to act."