The internal conflict within the Republican People's Party (CHP) has lingered since the court’s ruling declaring it an absolute nullity. The division within the party is expected to continue. On the one hand, following the court decision, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu officially took over the party's leadership and is trying to consolidate it. On the other hand, former Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu’s team, represented by former Chair Özgür Özel, insists on not leaving the party to Kılıçdaroğlu.
It is quite clear that upcoming developments within the CHP will have profound consequences not only for the party but for the entire political system in Türkiye. Since the early days of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government, the CHP has been serving as the main opposition party in the country. Due to voter fatigue among CHP constituents and growing distrust toward the party, the divisions within the CHP could lead to its decline from its status as the main opposition party.
Let’s not forget that the CHP had, until very recently, consolidated and motivated its voters mainly through negative partisanship. Its primary commitment to its voters has been to overthrow the Erdoğan government. Developing well-founded and concrete solutions to the country’s fundamental issues has never been its primary priority.
Furthermore, the CHP has recently lost much of its influence over the bureaucracy, including the military, the judiciary and academia. As the tutelage system weakened, the crises within the CHP also grew. Because even if the CHP didn’t come out on top in general elections, it was generally able to control the government through the bureaucracy. As of today, this is hardly possible anymore. Therefore, for the first time in its history, the CHP is experiencing the growing pains of being a true opposition party.
Third, the political system and social structure in Türkiye cannot simultaneously sustain two major left-wing political parties. Given that even the CHP alone has struggled to come to power, it is unlikely that two left-wing parties could both emerge as mainstream political forces and viable contenders for government. Therefore, the opposition will try to become a government candidate under the leadership of a single left-wing party. It is clear that they cannot come to power by splitting. Furthermore, apart from the CHP, there is no other left-wing party in Türkiye that can effectively represent the left and be a strong opposition force.
Another point is that Imamoğlu’s team will want to continue with a populist political party. However, a populist political party has no chance of coming to power, mainly for two reasons. First, there is no political vacuum in the country. Despite various economic and political challenges, the vast majority of the Turkish people still trust Erdoğan's leadership. Second, the biggest handicap for the CHP, or any other political party, is the presence of a charismatic leader like Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the political scene. The CHP, or any other party, cannot produce a leader who could be an alternative or rival to Erdoğan.
Imamoğlu’s side, without abandoning legal avenues, is trying to eliminate Kılıçdaroğlu and his team largely through illegitimate political means. Because Imamoğlu’s project suffered a major blow, the Imamoğlu side is waging a lynching campaign against Kılıçdaroğlu’s team that goes beyond mere criticism. Ultimately, those they want to eliminate are their own party members and the previous presidential candidate. Naturally, this will be noted by the CHP's real or potential voters.
Furthermore, the CHP’s victory in local elections was a huge test, but the CHP’s elected mayors and local administrations widely disappointed the party's voters, failing this test. Instead of service-oriented politics, the mayors became associated more with immorality, theft and bribery. Even though Imamoğlu’s team doesn’t care about these claims or take them into account, the public and other political parties are waiting for a response to Kılıçdaroğlu’s allegations. Otherwise, Özel’s silence would mean acceptance of these claims.
All in all, the CHP still lacks the tradition of taking into account the identities, demands, priorities and psychology of the broad masses of the Turkish people. Moreover, the CHP has never pursued a service-oriented policy, nor has it felt the need to. In fact, the bureaucracy acted on behalf of the CHP for decades. The party does not have a tradition of producing services. Therefore, it will take time for the CHP to learn to become a real opposition party, and Türkiye will continue to have a serious opposition problem.
When we examine the ruling party in question, we see that the AK Party has prioritized service-oriented policies since its inception. The party continues to engage with and shape political, social and economic life across a wide range of areas. While it is socially conservative and politically reformist, its foreign policy is both pragmatic and humanitarian, maintaining close relations with the West while simultaneously expanding its engagement with non-Western regions.
Last weekend, elections held in six new towns indicated that the Turkish people still do not trust the CHP to govern the country. Out of these six towns, the AK Party won four mayorships, while the CHP has only one. The midterm election results show the Turkish people’s distrust of the CHP. Therefore, the CHP needs to think about the results and take the required measures. Otherwise, the country will continue to experience the opposition problem.
