Türkiye’s oldest party will soon produce its newest. The "New Party,” as it has been tentatively dubbed by media outlets close to the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), is expected to be unveiled this week by Özgür Özel, who lost his seat at the helm of the CHP to his predecessor, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, in May. Prior to the announcement, lawmakers are calculating their political futures, with some undecided about whether to stay in the CHP or join Özel in the new party.

Since Kılıçdaroğlu retook the reins, he has worked to boost his support within the party, but Özel, who has been reduced to the post of parliamentary group chair, has long resisted the idea of leaving. The Özel camp believes he is the CHP’s only chance of winning the next presidential election, but the growing rift within the party is further diminishing that chance.

Özel is working to convince as many lawmakers as possible to join the new party, but some lawmakers are reportedly unwilling to leave the CHP. According to a report by the Sabah newspaper, they include lawmakers who earlier issued messages of support for Özel’s struggle to reclaim his chairmanship after a court ruled that his chairmanship was null and void over allegations of vote-buying in a 2023 election that brought him to power.

Kılıçdaroğlu was flatly branded a "traitor” by Özel’s supporters, while Özel himself did not spare his predecessor criticism as he toured Türkiye to garner support for his cause. The Özel camp commands a stronger presence on social media, and some lawmakers are afraid of reprisals from other CHP members if they choose to remain under the Kılıçdaroğlu administration, party sources told Sabah. This has been the case on social media for prominent party figures who openly supported Kılıçdaroğlu. The online lynch mob was quick to highlight past mistakes in both their political and private lives when they pledged allegiance to Kılıçdaroğlu. Indeed, Kılıçdaroğlu himself was the subject of a hostile campaign, particularly by those who had fanatically supported him in the 2023 presidential race against incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Party sources say many lawmakers who make public appearances with Özel have expressed their intention to stay in the CHP and claim that no more than 60 lawmakers will leave to join Özel’s new party. Most of them, they say, would be figures who joined the CHP in recent years.

The Özel camp, nevertheless, claims that at least 80 lawmakers would join the new party. Özel will need at least 68 lawmakers to make his new party the main opposition party. Thus, Kılıçdaroğlu’s CHP would be reduced to 67 seats in Parliament and drop to the rank of the third-largest party. Party sources say Özel has had to wait for the inauguration of the new party because he has still been unable to reach this number.

Skepticism among CHP lawmakers over Özel’s new party is also tied to the "Imamoğlu factor.” Most CHP figures are unwilling to join a new party under the influence of former Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, who is currently imprisoned on corruption charges. Imamoğlu is an influential figure in the party and was declared its presidential candidate after his arrest in March 2025. Since then, he has secretly run the party’s affairs from behind bars, according to media reports. Özel is deeply committed to Imamoğlu’s cause, while Kılıçdaroğlu has not been on very good terms with the former mayor, who was caught red-handed secretly garnering support for Özel before the latter competed against Kılıçdaroğlu in the 2023 intra-party vote.

Imamoğlu represents a new trend in the party, whose past image has been stained by successive defeats at the hands of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), and is viewed as a savior figure for the CHP. He leans more toward the center-right compared with Kılıçdaroğlu’s "old-school” social democrats and Özel’s volatile mix of political ideologies, which seeks to draw from the playbook of the all-embracing AK Party.

Apart from undecided lawmakers, another risk awaiting Özel is the potential loss of his parliamentary immunity. Currently, Özel has 61 outstanding cases before Parliament that could lead to the lifting of his immunity. A parliamentary committee will continue working through the summer, although other committees have gone into recess, and will focus on immunity cases. A report by Sabah says at least 25 lawmakers siding with Kılıçdaroğlu would vote in favor of lifting Özel’s immunity if the parliamentary committee put the issue to a vote. The Sabah report says this number could increase to 35 in the coming days.

Kılıçdaroğlu has been an avid supporter of lifting lawmakers’ immunity, something he highlighted in an interview last month. Party sources told Sabah that Özel and other lawmakers should not be afraid of losing their immunity if they are not guilty of anything and that, on the contrary, this may be their chance to clear their names.