Arsenal stand 90 minutes from ending a 20-year wait for a Champions League final, but Atletico Madrid arrive in North London on Tuesday convinced the tie is still finely balanced after a tense first leg.
The semifinal remains locked at 1-1 after a chaotic night in Madrid, where three penalties shaped the story and left both sides with reasons to feel aggrieved.
Viktor Gyokeres and Julian Alvarez converted from the spot either side of halftime, while Arsenal were left fuming when a second penalty was overturned after a VAR review, a decision that drew a furious reaction from Mikel Arteta and animated protests from Diego Simeone on the touchline.
For Arsenal, the bigger picture still favors them.
Avoiding defeat away in a Champions League semifinal is a result most teams would take and back at the Emirates Stadium, Arteta’s side have both form and history on their side.
Unbeaten in this season’s competition, Arsenal can set a new club record of 14 consecutive Champions League matches without defeat if they reach the final.
Their domestic rhythm is equally convincing.
A fluent 3-0 win over Fulham at the weekend pushed them six points clear at the top of the Premier League and underlined a team playing with confidence and clarity at the right time.
Europe has also been kind to Arsenal at home, especially against Spanish opposition.
Only one defeat in their last 15 such matches paints a daunting picture for Atletico, who were also dismantled 4-0 by the Gunners earlier in the campaign, a result that briefly shook Simeone’s side before sparking a run of seven straight wins.
That resurgence has not translated into silverware.
Atletico’s season is drifting toward a familiar frustration. They have already lost the Copa del Rey final to Real Sociedad and sit comfortably in La Liga’s top four, but out of the title race as Barcelona pull away.
Simeone rotated heavily for the weekend trip to Valencia, making 11 changes, yet still watched his side secure a composed 2-0 win. It suggests depth and readiness, but also highlights how much hinges on Tuesday night.
Recent form offers mixed signals. Atletico have steadied themselves with two wins in their last three games, but that follows a damaging stretch in spring when they lost seven of eight matches, a slump that nearly derailed their season.
History gives them hope.
Atletico have advanced from six of their last 10 European knockout ties after drawing the first leg at home. They also carry psychological edge from eliminating Arsenal in the 2017-18 Europa League semifinals.
Team news adds another layer of intrigue. Bukayo Saka, influential again with a goal and assist against Fulham, was withdrawn early as a precaution and is expected to start. Arteta remains hopeful Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz will recover in time, though Jurrien Timber and Mikel Merino are set to miss out.
Midfield balance could shift, with Martin Zubimendi likely to return after being rested, while Piero Hincapie is expected to slot back into defense.
For Atletico, relief surrounds Julian Alvarez, who limped off in the first leg but has avoided serious injury and is set to lead the attack. The Argentine continues to rewrite records, becoming the fastest from his country to reach 25 Champions League goals, surpassing Lionel Messi’s mark.
Several key players, including Antoine Griezmann and Marcos Llorente, were managed carefully at the weekend, but injuries to Pablo Barrios and Nico Gonzalez leave Simeone with fewer options in midfield, while Jose Gimenez remains a doubt.