Sports Minister Ahmad Donyamali signaled Wednesday that Iran may be unable to compete at the 2026 World Cup, a tournament set to be co-hosted by the United States, offering the strongest indication yet that the country could withdraw from global football’s showpiece event.
No official withdrawal has been announced, but the remarks are likely to heighten concern within FIFA, which may now have to consider the unprecedented possibility of replacing Iran in a tournament scheduled to begin in early June across the United States, Mexico and Canada.
Donyamali said Iran’s participation would be impossible following airstrikes launched by the United States and Israel on Feb. 28 that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an attack that has ignited a widening regional conflict with no clear sign of easing.
While it always seemed counterintuitive that Iran would take part in a World Cup while at war with one of the co-hosts, FIFA was on Tuesday still clearly banking on Team Melli lining up for its first group game against New Zealand in Los Angeles on June 15.
Only a few hours before Donyamali’s statement, FIFA president Gianni Infantino cited an assurance from President Donald Trump that Iran was "welcome to compete in the tournament in the United States.”
A withdrawal would be governed by Article 6 of the World Cup regulations which, while stipulating a series of financial penalties for such a move, also states that FIFA would be at liberty to call up any nation it chooses to fill the void.
"There’s no modern precedent for this and, according to FIFA’s own tournament regulations, they have full discretion to do whatever they want in the case of a team withdrawing,” James Kitching, FIFA’s former director of football regulatory, told Reuters.
"That means, for example, a team that withdraws would not have to be replaced by a team from the same confederation, or even replaced at all. Whether either of those scenarios would be politically tenable is a different question.
"The tournament regulations also provide disciplinary sanctions for any federation whose team withdraws. However, if Iran withdrew for any reason related to this current conflict, I doubt FIFA would impose any sanctions given the circumstances.”
Iran qualified for a fourth successive World Cup by topping Group A in the third round of Asian qualifying last year, and a replacement from Asia would appear most logical, even if that is not as straightforward as it may seem.
Travel freeze complicates Iraqi preparations
Iraq is due to participate in the intercontinental playoffs in Mexico this month for a spot at the finals, while the United Arab Emirates, which lost to Iraq in an eliminator in November, has also been mentioned as a potential candidate.
The travel freeze in the Middle East caused by the conflict is affecting Iraq’s ability to get to Mexico and prepare for its match against either Bolivia or Suriname on March 31.
Iraq coach Graham Arnold has proposed that FIFA postpone the fixture until closer to the finals, saying that would be fair to Iraq and allow the Iran situation to develop further.
"Let Bolivia play Suriname this month and then a week before the World Cup, we play the winner in the U.S. The winner of that game stays on and the loser goes home,” Arnold told the Australian Associated Press (AP) on Monday.
"In my opinion, it also gives FIFA more time to decide what Iran is going to do. If Iran withdraws, we go into the World Cup and it gives the UAE, who we beat in qualifying, the chance to prepare for either Bolivia or Suriname.”
FIFA has yet to comment on Donyamali’s statement, while a source at the Asian Football Confederation said it "is closely monitoring the situation and remains in contact with FIFA” over the potential replacement of Iran.
"Matters relating to the World Cup fall under FIFA’s remit,” the source said. "At this stage, it would be premature to speculate further.”
World Cup places are highly coveted by the confederations, however, and it is likely that the AFC would lobby strongly for the replacement to come from Asia.
With Europe’s final participants also set to be decided at the end of March, Kitching believes FIFA will not make any firm decisions until early April.
"I would expect a decision is not going to be made until after the final playoffs are finished and for FIFA to take a pragmatic and consultative approach to the situation,” he said.