Embattled with pollution, the Marmara Sea, which serves a large population in Turkey’s northwest, faces a bleak future. Authorities and scientists hope a digital twin or a faithful, real-time visual representation of the sea could help them pinpoint risks and take necessary steps in time to save it.
Still recovering from the impact of last year’s large-scale mucilage issue, the sea’s marine life is threatened both by climate change and a backlog of years of pollution in one of Turkey’s most industrialized regions. The government was already working on activating the digital twin and all of its modules are expected to be activated next year.
The Ministry of Environment, Urban Planning and Climate Change has been working on the project for years and collecting data with a pollution monitoring program. The program involves 423 monitoring stations, 11 institutes and three research ships active through three-year periods, providing a comprehensive outline of the state of the sea. The work was accelerated in 2016 in light of troubling findings and the ministry, together with the Institute of Marine Sciences of Middle East Technical University (METU), implemented phase two with MARMOD, a research project focused on the Marmara Sea. MARMOD creates scenarios for the improvement or deterioration of ecosystems, and its second phase was implemented in 2021, the year the mucilage became widespread. MARMOD stations were increased to 150 in different spots of Marmara, along with more expeditions by marine research vessels.
Mehrali Ecer, director of the Environmental Impact Assessment Department of the ministry, says a three-dimensional model was developed after mucilage, also known as sea snot, emerged and it included physical, biogeochemical and ecosystem modules. "Currently, tests are underway on physical oceanographical models of a digital twin and by the end of 2023, we aim to activate the digital twin in its entirety. This digital twin will help to preemptively prevent mucilage and other pollution problems, to contribute to healthy redevelopment of ecosystem and biodiversity," he told Anadolu Agency (AA) on Wednesday.
Ecer said the monitoring stations would collect high-definition data on a medium-layer load of factors causing mucilage and expeditions would use Scanfish, a remotely operated marine vehicle for undersea surveys.
Professor Barış Salihoğlu, director of the Institute of Marine Sciences, said they would be able to produce three-dimensional models of the Marmara Sea with highlights on temperature, salination, currents and cycles. "Along with this computer simulation, we will feed different data input into the system, from land resources supplying Marmara to the impact of cities. We are trying to understand how the Marmara’s ecosystem will change under different socioeconomic scenarios, how the climate will change in the future, if the current pace of carbon emissions is maintained," he said. Salihoğlu added that the digital twin would provide real-time visual and digital data both for citizens and for decision-makers.