Two years after it was rocked by one of the deadliest earthquakes in its recent history, Izmir, Turkey’s third-largest province, is in search of clues about what the future may behold. The Izmir Metropolitan Municipality has enlisted the help of scientists to assess potential tremor risks.
Their work focuses on the Tuzla fault line, which crosses through Seferihisar, the epicenter of the 2020 earthquake. In the ditches dug by crews right on the fault lines, scientists gather soil samples for their research.
The Tuzla fault line is the latest subject of investigation, among some 40 fault lines in an area stretching 100 kilometers (62.14 miles) in diameter, but it is also among the most dangerous in the country. Experts say the long-dormant line has the potential to generate a devastating earthquake as it nears the end of the typical lull between earthquake occurrences, usually a span of hundreds of years.
Professor Erhan Altunel of Osmangazi University in the central province of Eskişehir, a geology expert, is among those examining the fault lines. Altunel said the team both works on known fault lines and tries to determine if there are new fault lines in the region. Currently, Altunel and other researchers, including 43 scientists and 18 engineers from 10 universities, are working on the fault line research study that is set to conclude by 2024. Altunel said in a written statement that the researchers took samples from a section of the fault line near the Aegean Sea to determine the potential risks. Teams also work in paleoseismological ditches they opened in fault lines in districts and areas including Bergama, Gülbahçe, Narlıdere and Yağcılar.
Banu Dayangaç, head of Izmir municipality’s department on earthquake risk management and urban improvement, said they were also seeking to calculate the risk of tsunamis for Izmir. The 2020 earthquake stirred up a minor tsunami, though the greater damage was on land, specifically in the Bayraklı district, far from Seferihisar.
Izmir is at the heart of the Aegean region of Turkey which stretches across the country's western shores. The region is an indented swathe of cities and towns where the eponymous sea cuts through the land that mountains face. Most settlements face countless islands, small and large, dotting the sea. The geography owes its current shape to earthquakes and shifts in tectonic plates. The wider region is located right in the center of the meeting point of three tectonic plates stretching to Africa, the Middle East and the Eurasian region. The Arabian and Eurasian plates collide to the east of the Aegean, in an area covering Izmir and other Turkish provinces. Their collision pushes the Anatolian plate further north toward the west, creating the potential for earthquakes.
Sitting on multiple active fault lines, Turkey went through a shaky period in 2021, experiencing an average of three earthquakes an hour. Given that the risk of more consequential earthquakes remain, the country strives to protect its buildings as a precaution in the event of the "big one." Statistics show that a total of 23,753 earthquakes were recorded over the course of last year. In other words, around 65 earthquakes ranging in magnitudes occurred in a day on average in the country. Earthquakes are monitored by the 1,143 seismic observation stations run by the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) across the country, though some universities also operate their own stations.