The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasted that Türkiye’s economy will grow 3.1% this year and 3.5% in 2026.

The bank released its Regional Economic Outlook report covering countries where it operates.

According to the report, the EBRD revised its regional growth forecast for 2025 upward by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1%, citing ongoing global geopolitical tensions, rising competition from China in export markets, and constrained fiscal space as continued pressures.

Economic growth across EBRD countries is projected to rise to 3.3% in 2026.

For Türkiye, the bank raised its 2025 growth forecast by 0.3 points to 3.1%. The upward revision reflects reduced tensions in Syria and the Caucasus, closer cooperation with the European Union, and developments in Türkiye’s construction, logistics, and defense sectors, even as variable risk perceptions and tightening global financing conditions remain key challenges.

Türkiye’s growth forecast for 2026 was also revised upward by 0.7 points to 3.5%.

The EBRD’s total investment in the country exceeds 22.4 billion euros ($26.3 billion), with its current portfolio in the country around €8 billion.