The recent developments in Turkish financial markets amid the investigation following allegations of manipulation and the process of liquidation of dozens of funds are having a varying impact on the economy, while the effects on the real sector are currently modest, analysts and the central bank suggest.
The probe into dozens of suspects in the past couple of weeks has uncovered what Turkish authorities call "a criminal organization" behind the crisis.
The scandal in September prompted authorities to order the liquidation of 131 investment funds that authorities suspect were manipulated and inflated in price. Nearly half a million investors held stakes in the funds.
A new analysis shared by the credit rating agency Fitch Ratings on Tuesday indicated that "turmoil impact varies" while flagging securities firms as most affected.
"Turkish securities firms face weaker revenue prospects as stock-market and asset-management turmoil reduces trading volume," the agency said. It also noted that the market turmoil followed the defaults of two asset managers in the week to Sept. 18.
"It then spread to the wider market, with 131 investment funds, worth about TL 900 billion ($18 billion), put into liquidation," it added.
Fitch also pointed out that local securities firms, particularly brokers, appear to be most impacted, but also said that "brokers with strong capital and liquidity, conservative margin lending, limited proprietary exposure and diversified franchises are better placed to absorb the market stress."
It also suggested that, according to its estimate, the "direct exposure of the Turkish banking sector to the affected funds is negligible."
"Market volatility and customers’ exposure to the funds could weaken asset quality, but any resulting deterioration should be manageable and is unlikely to have a major effect on banks’ credit profiles," it also said.
Following the market-disrupting activities and a sell-off in Turkish stocks after some asset management companies struggled to maintain payments to investors, Turkish authorities have launched a comprehensive investigation, while also establishing a special board to follow the process and repayments to investors.
Separately, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) said in a blog on Wednesday that developments in the fund market "can affect the real economy through various channels" but also noted that the current impact on the real sector remains limited.
"As of Sept. 15, 2026, approximately 3,000 real sector firms held a combined TL 116 billion in funds that are now being wound up," the blog read.
Almost half of this amount, or TL 57 billion, was invested in money market funds, the blog said, with the remainder held in equity funds and other types of funds.
"The sectoral distribution of these firms shows no significant concentration in any particular sector," it added.
Also questioning how significant these firms are in the broader economy, the CBRT said that the "affected firms account for approximately 1.2% of the real sector’s total assets, 0.6% of employment, 0.9% of turnover, 1.1% of exports and 0.9% of outstanding commercial loans."
However, the importance of their fund investments varies from firm to firm, particularly in terms of short-term risks, it added.
The bank also noted that "the firms that invested in the affected funds still have access to credit."
"We assess that the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s macroprudential policy actions on Oct. 1, 2026, to support macrofinancial stability and banks’ liquidity management have also contributed to this development," it said.
"The CBRT's measures to support banks' liquidity management, along with regulations aimed at facilitating access to finance for SMEs and corporate bond issuers, may help contain potential risks. Meanwhile, further progress in the liquidation process could also help mitigate these effects," the bank added.
Türkiye's benchmark stock index BIST 100 was up close to 5% on Wednesday midday at 11.536,47 points following weeks of volatility after the fund crisis.