Housing prices in Türkiye extended their decline in real terms in May, despite continued growth in sales volumes, as elevated borrowing costs weigh on the property market.
Data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) showed on Tuesday that the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) rose 1.7% month-over-month in May and was up 24.5% from a year earlier in nominal terms. The annual nominal increase was the weakest since May 2020.
Adjusted for inflation, however, house prices fell 6.1% year-over-year, marking the 27th monthly real decline in the past 28 months.
Inflation in Türkiye edged up to 32.6% in May from 32.4% in April.
Analysts said the divergence between stronger sales volumes and weaker real prices reflected a market driven more by deferred demand than fresh speculative interest.
"Under normal circumstances, the recovery in transaction volumes would be expected to feed more strongly into prices. The acceleration in real declines was therefore somewhat surprising," said Ali Hepşen, a professor at Istanbul University's Faculty of Business Administration.
He said many buyers who postponed purchases in 2023 and 2024 had returned to the market, boosting sales without generating the same degree of upward pressure on prices.
Latest data showed nationwide house sales rose 2.6% from a year ago in April, while the four-month figure jumped 0.5%.
After recording a 1.4% annual real increase in January 2024, house prices slipped back into negative territory in February of that year and have remained below inflation ever since, with the exception of a marginal 0.3% real increase in November 2025.
The pace of real declines has accelerated in recent months, widening from 1.4% in December to 6.1% in May. The annual real decrease stood at 2.3% in January, 3.9% in February, 3.4% in March and 4.3% in April.
"High interest rates remain the main factor limiting prices," Hepşen said. "Mortgage costs are still elevated, meaning cash buyers continue to dominate the market. This leads to more controlled price movements."
He added that the current trend also represented a rebalancing after the sharp increases seen in previous years, when house prices had significantly outpaced inflation.
"Prices are increasing in nominal terms, but because the overall price level is rising more quickly, the decline continues in real terms."
Last week, Türkiye's central bank left its key interest rate at 37%, as expected, holding steady for a third consecutive meeting, as it monitors the inflation impact of the Iran war.
Since the conflict started at the end of February, the CBRT has halted an easing cycle that began in late 2024.
In its quarterly inflation report in May, the bank raised its end-2026 interim inflation target to 24% from 16%. It sees it falling to 15% in 2027 and to 9% by the end of 2028.
Hepşen said he did not expect a return to strong double-digit real price gains unless mortgage rates declined materially.
How long the decline in real housing prices will continue depends largely on the inflation and interest rate outlook, he added.
Under current conditions, Hepşen said it is likely that house prices will continue to underperform inflation at least until the end of 2026.
"Because today, credit demand, the main factor that would push housing prices higher, is still not strong enough," he noted.
"We foresee that without a lasting decline in interest rates, the return to real price increases will remain limited."
Real estate economist Ahmet Büyükduman said house prices and real interest rates historically moved in opposite directions.
"They (house prices and real interest rates) resemble two ends of a seesaw," Büyükduman said. "When real interest rates rise, housing prices remain below inflation and decline in real terms."
As long as the current monetary policy stance and high real interest rates remain in place, he said house price increases are likely to stay below inflation.
"I think the increase in housing prices will remain below inflation over the next year as well," Büyükduman added.