Türkiye is relying on eight factors that could reinforce its disinflation drive and help shift inflation from a recent period of relative stability back toward a sustained decline in price growth.
The conflict in the Middle East, other geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over global trade and rising cost pressures have caused inflation in Türkiye to level off in recent months.
The developments that are outlined in Türkiye's 2027-2029 Medium-Term Program (MTP) are expected to help give fresh momentum to disinflation through the remainder of this year and put inflation back on a downward trajectory.
The disinflation process, which began in June 2024, has continued with the support of policies implemented particularly over the past year, leading to a significant improvement in the inflation outlook.
A tight monetary policy stance, support from fiscal and income policies, more moderate domestic demand and an improvement in inflation expectations have all contributed to the process.
Annual inflation, which stood at around 75% in the summer of 2024, eased to 31.51% this August.
Wars, trade uncertainty slow disinflation
The disinflation process has nevertheless been slowed by wars in Türkiye's region and uncertainty surrounding global trade.
The Iran war and its repercussions emerged as the main adverse factor affecting inflation dynamics during the January-August period, while other geopolitical developments, global trade uncertainty, agricultural supply conditions and rising cost pressures contributed to a temporary leveling-off in inflation.
Despite these pressures, the government expects disinflation to accelerate particularly in the remainder of this year and into 2027.
The MTP projects inflation at 28.4% at the end of this year, 21% in 2027, 13.5% in 2028 and 9% in 2029.
The program's main objective is to maintain a determined and uninterrupted downward trend, break inflation inertia and bring price growth down to single digits.
8 developments
According to the road map, the government identifies eight developments as key to achieving its inflation targets:
- Maintaining a determined monetary policy stance
- Stronger support from fiscal policy
- Continued rebalancing of domestic demand
- Preserving stability in the Turkish lira
- Continued improvement in inflation expectations
- Gradual weakening of inertia in services inflation
- Stronger impact from supply-side measures targeting housing and food
- Normalization in energy prices, easing cost pressures