Since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, the war between the three states has been escalating. Both sides are trying to expand the war. On the one hand, the U.S. wants its allies to take responsibility and share the burden of the war, while Israel expects American and Arab soldiers to fight on its behalf. On the other hand, Iran aims to spread the cost of the war to force the U.S. and Israel to stop their attacks against it.

The significant power asymmetry between the warring states is forcing Iran to spread the war to neighboring countries. Since it is nearly impossible for Iran to attack the American mainland, it is trying to retaliate by attacking American targets in the Gulf countries, thus spreading the war to the region. The Gulf countries, well aware that this is not their war, are acting patiently.

Although Iran claims that it is attacking the American targets only in the Gulf countries, the rising costs of these attacks may force the Gulf countries to change their stance toward Iran. Therefore, Iran must exercise greater caution in its attacks, as it is currently in the wrong position against them.

The American impasse

Realizing that defeating Iran will not be easy, the U.S. is trying to spread the responsibility. U.S. President Donald Trump is calling on his European allies and Arab states to take responsibility. He asked many states, including China, to help the U.S. keep the Strait of Hormuz open to oil and gas trade. However, although the closure of the strait affected all states, they have rejected the American call. The U.S.’ allies do not want to support an unjust and pointless war, because this war is neither moral nor rational.

One of the most important factors affecting the course of the war depends on the success of the parties' strategies. In reality, both Iran’s efforts to spread the war and the U.S. and Israel’s efforts to spread responsibility will be shaped as a result of the calculations of the aggressor states. Up until now, Iran has been fighting a struggle for survival and, therefore, waging a defensive war. Ultimately, whether the expectations of the U.S. and Israel are met and the impact this has on these two countries will be decisive.

It seems that the Hormuz Strait is one of Iran’s most important strategic assets. Therefore, it will not readily agree to the opening of this Strait. Given that the closure of the Strait poses a major threat to the functioning of the global economic system, the U.S. has no choice but to reach an agreement with Iran. Otherwise, rising energy prices will cause severe economic damage in all countries, including the U.S. In addition, sooner or later, China and Russia will become involved in the process, further increasing the cost of the war for Western countries. It is obvious that if the U.S. insists on escalating the war, both American and Western hegemony will suffer a major blow.

Israel’s regional ambition

While the U.S. is beginning to realize it is being dragged into a war of attrition by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the pro-Israeli lobby in Washington, Trump has started blaming his close associates. As the war drags on, the U.S. stance in the war will differ from Israel’s position, which will force Israel to recalculate its regional strategy. After Israel understood that it was unable to change the Iranian regime, it decided to seize this opportunity and began expanding its occupation of southern Lebanon as well as the Palestinian West Bank region. It is trying to create a new fait accompli in the region.

Iran’s effective and devastating retaliation has begun to destroy Israeli strategic facilities. Following the Iron Dome’s failure to counter Iranian hypersonic missiles, Iran has begun to inflict significant damage on Israel. In response, Netanyahu called on Western powers for help, yet their narrative has begun to decline in the West.

A large portion of the Western public opinion recognizes that Israel has committed a genocide in Gaza with the support and consent of their governments. They have begun to put pressure on their respective governments to return the blank check that they gave to Israel. Both American and European political atmospheres have begun to turn against Israel. Western peoples are no longer buying Israel’s lies and manipulations.

Similarly, regional states and peoples, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Türkiye, have become aware of Israel’s uncontrollable regional ambitions and are concerned about a Western-backed Israeli regional dominance. Especially after attacking Doha last year, all regional states have realized that no state is immune to Israel’s attacks. Therefore, Israel may gain some short-term advantages, but it could lose the support of both Western countries and the Arab world in the medium to long term.