Russia and Syrian regime forces have been bolstered in northern Syria where Turkey may soon launch an operation against the PKK terrorist group's Syrian branch, the YPG, Turkish and opposition Syrian officials said, as Ankara prepares for talks with Moscow.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said two weeks ago Turkey would launch new military operations in Syria to extend the 30-kilometer (20-mile) deep "safe zones" along the border, aiming at the Tal Rifaat and Manbij regions and other areas further east.
Russia, which warned over the weekend against military escalation in northern Syria, is sending Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov for talks in Ankara on Wednesday.
The two countries have close ties and Ankara has sought to mediate talks over Russia's war in Ukraine, but their support for opposing sides in Syria may test Russian President Vladimir Putin's relations with the only NATO member yet to impose sanctions on Moscow over the invasion.
The stakes are also high for Erdoğan. Without at least tacit approval from Russia, Syrian regime leader Bashar Assad's powerful ally in the Syria conflict, a Turkish operation would carry an additional risk of casualties. Russia and Turkey have checked each other's military ambitions at various points in Syria's war, at times bringing them close to direct confrontation.
There have not yet been signs of a significant Turkish military buildup in the border region, but reports of rocket and artillery exchanges have become more frequent in the past two weeks.
Any Turkish operation would attack the YPG terrorist group, a key part of the U.S.-backed forces that control large parts of northern Syria and is regarded by Washington as an important ally against Daesh. Ankara sees it as a terrorist group and an extension of the PKK.
A spokesperson for the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) said Russia was reinforcing positions near Tal Rifaat, Manbij, the southern outskirts of Ain al-Arab (Kobani) and Ain Issa – all towns within 40 kilometers (25 miles) of the Turkish border.
"Since the announcement of the operation, the Syrian regime and its Iranian militias have mobilized and (are) sending reinforcements to the YPG," Major Youssef Hammoud told Reuters.
Their intelligence had spotted Russian helicopters landing at an air base close to Tal Rifaat, he added.
Local sources said on Saturday Russia was making deployments in north Syria to "consolidate its control," flying reconnaissance flights over Tal Rifaat and setting up Pantsir-S1 air defense systems in Qamishli, a border town nearly 400 kilometers further east.
YPG commander Ferhat Abdi Şahin, code-named Mazloum Kobani, told Reuters on Sunday Damascus should use its air defense systems against Turkish planes and his forces were "open" to working with Syrian regime troops to fight off Turkey, but said there was no need to send more forces.
Talks with Lavrov
Ankara says it must act because Washington and Moscow broke promises to push the YPG 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the border after a 2019 Turkish operation. With both powers seeking Turkey's support over Ukraine, the conflict may offer it a degree of leverage.
Washington, whose backing for the YPG has long been a source of strain in ties with Turkey, has voiced concern, saying any new operation would put at risk U.S. troops – which have a presence in Syria – and undermine regional stability.
Russia also said last week it hoped Turkey "refrains from actions which could lead to a dangerous deterioration of the already difficult situation in Syria."
A senior Turkish official said Lavrov would be asked about intelligence that he said pointed to the Syrian regime and Iran-backed forces either arriving at Tal Rifaat or heading there.
"Turkey will do this operation one way or another," the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
Asked whether Russia was strengthening positions in northern Syria, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters it was the Syrian armed forces that "are reinforcing, to a greater or lesser extent, certain facilities on their territory."
The Syrian regime does not comment on troop movements, but the pro-regime newspaper al-Watan on Monday cited sources in northern Raqqa – near the Turkish border – as saying Syrian troops, tanks and heavy weaponry deployed over the weekend in response to Turkish moves.
The Turkish official and the SNA's Hammoud said attacks from YPG-controlled areas against those under Turkish and SNA control had increased. Hammoud said Turkish and SNA forces were responding.
The U.S.-backed and YPG-led forces in northern Syria said Tuesday that they will turn to the government in Damascus for support should Turkey go ahead with its threat to launch a new operation into the war-torn country.
The YPG said after a meeting of its command that its priority is to reduce tension near the border with Turkey but also prepare for a long fight if Ankara carries out its threat.
The announcement appears to be a message directed at the United States and meant to elicit pressure from Washington on Ankara to put aside its offensive plans.
On the ground, the situation has been tense with near daily exchanges of fire and shelling between the U.S.-backed YPG fighters on one side and Turkish forces and Turkey-backed Syrian opposition gunmen on the other.
The Turkey-backed Syrian opposition fighters have been preparing for weeks to take part in the expected operation against YPG forces, seeking to expand their area of influence inside Syria.
On the other hand, relations between the YPG fighters who control large parts of northern and eastern Syria, including the towns of Tal Rifaat and Manbij that Erdoğan has named as possible targets, with Assad's forces have been mostly frosty over the past years. But faced with a threat, YPG fighters may want those ties to thaw.