Türkiye’s top politicians have formed two camps heading into May's elections, yet the nomination of Homeland Party (MP) Chairperson Muharrem Ince threatens to be a spoiler for the opposition alliance.
Ince's last-minute entry into a race that was shaping into the opposition's best chance yet to defeat President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has ruffled feathers across the political spectrum.
Ince was Erdoğan’s chief rival in the last election in 2018 but he vanished after garnering 30.6% of the vote share.
After Ince’s defeat, the opposition formed a six-party coalition; however, supporters of the opposition fear İnce’s decision to run again might split the opposition’s chances.
"This is bad news for the opposition," Sabancı University political science assistant professor Berk Esen told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
"Ince's ability to draw votes from the CHP and (its junior partner) the Good Party (IP) could have a spoiler effect and force the presidential election to a second round."
Ince represented the Republican People's Party (CHP) in the last election because the party felt the more mild-mannered Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu had less public appeal.
Ince’s passionate speeches and combative persona mimicked Erdoğan's own campaign style and drew huge crowds in the last campaign.
Hopes were high – and the disappointment deep.
Ince's defeat was followed by an hourslong silence that he broke by sending a curt text message to a reporter saying simply: "The man won."
The brusque remark created national headlines and contributed to a loss of Ince's popularity in the polls.
But Ince remained undeterred.
He immediately tried and failed to challenge Kılıçdaroğlu for the CHP leadership and then went on a national bus tour to drum up support for his own political brand.
Ince's new party resonates most with secular nationalist voters who comprise an important part of Kılıçdaroğlu’s current support base.
The 58-year-old native of a small village near Istanbul sounded characteristically confident after submitting his candidacy to the Supreme Election Council (YSK) this week.
"The election will go to the second round, and in the second round I will be elected president with more than 60% of the vote share," he said.
Most agree that anyone trying to single-handedly defeat Erdoğan will not only fail but also hurt the opposition alliance.
Analysts believe İnce mostly appeals to younger voters who want change and are uninspired by the 74-year-old Kılıçdaroğlu – a former civil servant who calls himself the "quiet force."
"He seems to be especially popular with Gen Z voters who can be easily swayed by anti-status quo candidates. For them, Kılıçdaroğlu is not a fresh face," Esen said.
Erdoğan's opponents are still quietly trying to force İnce to pull out of the race.
Ince on Saturday gathered the 100,000 signatures necessary for his candidature.
The process to gather the signatures will end on Monday at 8 p.m.
The New Welfare Party (YRP) Chairperson Fatih Erbakan had collected 69,150 signatures but has renounced his candidacy and announced that his party would support the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party)-led People’s Alliance’s candidate Erdoğan.
Another candidate, Sinan Oğan of the Ata Alliance, also gathered the necessary 100,000 signatures on Sunday.
Oğan is a former member of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the candidate of the Ata alliance led by the Victory Party (ZP), a staunch advocate of anti-migrant and anti-refugee sentiments.