Israel has forced the U.S. and many Middle Eastern states into the war as part of its regional expansionist project. Multiple European states have also been affected, especially after the British military base in southern Cyprus was hit by missiles. It seems that no one will be the winner. All states involved have paid and continue to pay very high costs.

It was clear from the beginning that if Iran were attacked by Israel and the U.S., it would target the American bases in the region. And so it happened. After the two states attacked Iran, Iran immediately retaliated by striking the U.S. bases in the Gulf countries, namely, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Jordan.

In addition to these states, Lebanon was dragged into the conflict when Israel struck some targets in Beirut and began to occupy the southern parts of the country.

Both Iran and the U.S. struck many targets in Iraq. While the U.S. attacked pro-Iranian militias, Iran attacked the American facilities in the country.

Targeted country Iran

As the main and first targeted state, Iran has suffered immense damage from the war. It lost its leadership cadres, including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. More than 40 high-level officials were killed during the first day of the war. The Iranian navy was largely destroyed by the U.S. and Israel. Iranian infrastructure was targeted nationwide. The U.S. and Israel attacked civilian buildings, including schools full of innocent children.

It will take a long time for Iran to recover from military and economic losses. However, the two aggressor states failed to change the regime of the country. The U.S. failed to understand the power of the Iranian state tradition and the grassroots level support for the regime. At this point, the aggressor states are not considering sending ground forces into Iran. In other words, the U.S. and Israel could inflict significant damage on Iran, but they cannot invade the country and win the war.

U.S. losing the ground

Similarly, the U.S. has suffered greatly from the war. Since all American military bases, naval vessels and many embassies in the Middle East were targeted by Iran, we can say that the U.S. military presence in the region has undergone significant damage. However, no one knows what the exact American losses are. The U.S., which enjoys showing its attacks live on television, is concealing its losses by employing cover-up measures as part of psychological warfare.

It seems that the Trump administration will suffer from the war. American state institutions have lost their credibility. Many Americans have begun to question President Donald Trump’s foreign policy. Claiming this is not their war, they have lost faith in the "America First” political discourse. They have started questioning the killing of American soldiers for Israel’s aggressive projects. According to public opinion polls conducted by Americans, the majority of Americans, around 60%, do not approve of the U.S. war against Iran. As a result, many Americans have begun to question the true authority of their government. Some have gone even further, claiming that the U.S. is acting as a proxy for Israel.

Furthermore, the U.S. will pay a high price for its relations with the Gulf states, as it prioritized Israel’s defense over the Gulf states, leaving them to fend for themselves against Iranian missile and drone attacks. It has announced that it will withdraw from some of its military bases in the Gulf for security reasons. This increases distrust toward the U.S. and will eventually lead to a decrease in the U.S. military presence in the region. Furthermore, the Gulf will consider reducing its overseas investments, including in the U.S., as war-related financial pressures increase.

Similarly, many American allies in Europe question the U.S. policies toward the Middle East. For example, Spain has overtly and clearly opposed the U.S. unconditional support for Israel. It has refused to allow the U.S. to use its territory and air bases in its attacks against Iran. While Switzerland declared that the U.S. war against Iran is a violation of international law and the main principles of the United Nations Charter, many European politicians, such as France’s former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, declared that the U.S. war against Iran is illegal, illegitimate and dangerous.

The U.S. has started to lose allies worldwide. Many Western and non-Western states have begun to take action against this baseless war. The world public will soon question the war crimes committed in both Gaza and Iran.

Peace through aggression?

Although it seems that the only beneficiary of the war is Israel, the truth is the opposite. The vast majority of the world's public opinion, including the majority of the West, believes that Iran is on the right side in the recent war. Especially, Western peoples have begun to question the role of the Zionist circles in their respective countries. Some Western governments have already started to accuse Israel of genocide. It seems that Israel will not receive the support it expects from Western states and will pay a higher price in the near future.

Israel’s expansionist and aggressive policies are largely counterproductive. The more it attacks the regional states, the more its citizens feel insecure. Ironically, the vast majority of the Israeli population and politicians support Netanyahu’s policies. Even the leader of the main opposition party, a so-called center-left political party, fully supports the government’s aggressive policies.

Iran’s attacks on Israel are highly effective as its missiles reach their targets with great ease. Israel appears to be experiencing problems such as the depletion of its missile defense systems and a decline in its defense performance. Especially, Iranian hypersonic missiles and suicide drones are difficult to fully intercept. After the intense Iranian attacks, nobody is talking about the deterrent effect of Israel’s air defense system anymore. Israel’s regional deterrence capacity has begun to be seriously eroded and questioned.

Gulf lost the most

However, the biggest losers of the war are the Gulf states, which were targeted more than any other state. The Gulf states are being pushed into a destructive war against their will and national interests by the U.S. and Israel.

The war shattered the "glass dome” in the Gulf, the Middle East's safest place to live and do business. It is no longer a safe haven or an oasis in the desert, which may be considered a major psychological blow to the region.

For instance, the Iranian strikes have damaged many airports in the Gulf, including the Dubai International Airport, the world’s busiest air hub. The Gulf states had to close their airspace, and airline companies have suspended travel, cancelled thousands of flights, and stranded tens of thousands of passengers. The closure of three of the most attractive air hubs in the world, namely Doha, Dubai and Abu Dhabi, has huge negative implications for tourism, trade and transportation.

Furthermore, the closure of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz severely affected the Gulf states, which are heavily dependent on oil and gas exports. Naturally, the oil and gas shipment disruptions will provoke important price hikes in the energy market. The infrastructure of oil-exporting countries, including Iran, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, has been devastated. That is, the war will harm all states, especially those that are dependent on Middle Eastern oil and gas.

Although the Gulf states have condemned Iran for its blatant aggression and flagrant violation of their national sovereignty, they are avoiding going to war with Iran.

First, they are now aware that the U.S. support did not deter Iran from attacking them. The U.S. did not defend them against attacks, neither from Israel nor from Iran.

Second, they now know that Israel poses a greater threat to their national sovereignty, since many Israeli representatives and pro-Israeli Western officials have been claiming that many smaller territories around Israel belong to Israel. After weakening Iran, Israel will attempt to weaken the Gulf states as well, continuing its expansionist policies.

Third, regional instability and uncertainty have increased. The new conditions will force the Gulf states to consolidate their coordination on defense and security fields within the context of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Tensions and problems among themselves will determine the fate of Gulf regional integration. At the very least, the Gulf states will lose their influence in the region in the near future.

The fourth and last point is that the most recent developments will slow down the normalization process between Arab states and Israel. The Gaza genocide has already derailed the potential normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.