Armenia on Sunday will hold parliamentary elections, the first since Azerbaijan’s Karabakh victory under incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and a crucial vote in which the nation will also decide on the tone of rapprochement with Türkiye.

Like its neighbor Türkiye, Armenia looks to balance alignments with Asia and the West. At Sunday’s parliamentary elections, the Caucasus country may test this balance, as well as its normalization with Türkiye. It will be the first election for the prime minister since Azerbaijan retook Karabakh in a decisive 2023 military victory and a vote that will follow a growing pace of rapprochement with Ankara. Experts argue that Armenia’s upcoming elections have the potential to reshape political dynamics in the Caucasus, making them a matter of strategic importance for regional and international stakeholders.

"Armenia’s upcoming elections have the potential to influence the strategic balance in the South Caucasus," Assistant professor Sinan Demirtürk of Gazi University and the chair of the Türkiye Policy and Strategic Research Foundation (TURPAV), told Daily Sabah.

Armenia is counting down to parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7 as the country continues efforts to normalize relations with Türkiye and Azerbaijan. The election will determine Armenia’s next prime minister.

Armenian voters are set to head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new parliament and next prime minister.

According to Demirtürk, Armenia has historically been positioned as a military and political partner of first the Russian Empire and later the Soviet Union in the region.

"From a historical perspective, Armenia has long been integrated into Russia’s geopolitical strategy in the South Caucasus," he said, arguing that Moscow continues to view Armenia as a key component of its regional security architecture, making Armenian elections an issue with implications extending beyond domestic politics.

The election is taking place amid ongoing debates over Armenia’s foreign policy orientation, including discussions about reducing dependence on Russia and deepening engagement with the West. Political observers say the vote could mark a turning point for the country’s future direction.

One of the factors drawing significant attention to Armenia’s parliamentary elections is Pashinyan. Known for his active use of social media, Pashinyan has remained at the center of public debate due to his efforts to normalize relations with Türkiye and Azerbaijan, as well as his outspoken statements and political initiatives.

While widely regarded as the frontrunner in the race, Pashinyan is also among the most heavily criticized political figures in the country. He has advocated both the normalization of ties with Türkiye and Azerbaijan and closer relations with Western countries.

"The outcome of the elections will not only affect Armenia’s internal political trajectory but could also have broader consequences for regional dynamics, particularly relations involving Russia, Azerbaijan and other actors in the South Caucasus," Demirtürk noted.

Armenian voters will choose among 17 political parties and two electoral alliances in a parliamentary election widely viewed as a test of the country’s future geopolitical orientation, as debates continue over closer ties with either Russia or the West.

Pashinyan and his ruling Civil Contract Party remain the frontrunners, according to recent opinion polls. However, analysts say that even if Pashinyan's party finishes first, it may fall short of securing enough votes to govern alone.

One of Pashinyan’s main challengers is Russian Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who leads the Strong Armenia alliance.

Drawing attention to the normalization of trade, transportation and border cooperation between Türkiye and Armenia while addressing long-standing historical and political disputes through bilateral agreements, "The goal is to create a more stable framework for border security and regional logistics,” Demirtürk said.

Such developments could further reduce Russia's influence in the South Caucasus, particularly following Azerbaijan's victory in the Karabakh conflict and the changing regional security environment, according to Demirtürk.

"The concern in Moscow is that deeper regional integration could gradually diminish Russia's military and political leverage in the region."

Recent normalization efforts mark the most active and tangible phase since the 1990s in Turkish-Armenian relations, which have long been at a minimum. As of early May, the process has moved toward frequent diplomatic contacts and a focus on confidence-building measures, including direct technical projects such as the joint restoration of the ancient Ani Bridge, which stands on the border between the two.

Demirtürk remarked that a victory by Pashinyan could accelerate ongoing regional normalization efforts and expand transportation and trade connectivity across the South Caucasus.

"If Pashinyan remains in power, agreements reached between Armenia and its neighbors could pave the way for new transit routes linking Türkiye with Central Asia," he stressed.

Türkiye and Armenia have signed a deal for the joint restoration of the ancient Ani Bridge on the border during a visit in May by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz to Yerevan. Yılmaz was the highest-ranking official since former President Abdullah Gül to visit Armenia. His visit is more significant, though, as Yerevan and Ankara explore more ways to further cooperation and eventually, fully normalize their relations.

"In that context, Armenia could become an important transit hub alongside projects such as the proposed Zangezur Corridor, particularly through the development of road and railway infrastructure."

He also said greater regional connectivity could contribute to broader social and political normalization among countries in the region.

"Improved transportation links and economic integration would likely be accompanied by a gradual easing of tensions and increased people-to-people contact."

Since 2020, Türkiye and Armenia have held a string of talks at various levels to explore the way forward in relations. Most recently, delegations from the two sides met in Kars of eastern Türkiye to discuss the revival of a railway between the two neighbors.

Earlier, direct passenger and cargo flights were launched mutually. Ankara and Yerevan also approved the opening of the Alican border crossing to citizens of third countries and diplomatic passport holders. Before Yılmaz’s visit, Pashinyan met President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan last June in Istanbul.

Azerbaijan, Armenia affairs

The process aimed at achieving lasting peace and normalizing relations between South Caucasus countries Azerbaijan and Armenia is set to continue in 2026, building on concrete diplomatic, political and economic steps taken over the past year

The year 2025 marked a period of intensified engagement between the two former Soviet nations, with contacts expanding from political dialogue to confidence-building measures on the ground.

A major breakthrough came on Aug. 8, when Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Pashinyan met in Washington under U.S. mediation and signed a joint declaration reaffirming their commitment to ending decades of conflict. On the same occasion, the foreign ministers of both countries initialed a peace agreement, underscoring a shared determination to advance toward full normalization.

Pointing out the cruciality of Armenia’s upcoming elections that are being closely observed by both global powers and regional actors, "As for Azerbaijan, Baku continues to adhere to the fundamental principles of international law and does not interfere in Armenia’s internal affairs,” Najiba Mustafayeva, an assistant professor at the Ibn Haldun University, stated.

"However, the prospect of revanchist opposition forces coming to power is viewed as a potential threat to the peace process,” she continued.

"The future of the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace agreement will be shaped to a large extent by the outcome of the elections," Mustafayeva warned.

She underlined that some opposition groups have campaigned on revisiting the terms of the peace agreement initialed by the parties in Washington last year and have sought to revive rhetoric surrounding the now-resolved Karabakh issue.

"From Baku’s perspective, attempts to reopen discussions on the Karabakh question or renegotiate the framework of the peace agreement could undermine regional stability and complicate efforts to achieve a lasting settlement between the two countries.”

Sargis Khandanyan, a member of the ruling Civil Contract Party and chair of the Armenian Parliament’s Standing Committee on Foreign Relations, recently said that his party would seek to advance the signing and ratification of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan while maintaining existing economic cooperation initiatives.

Khandanyan also condemned incidents involving the burning of Turkish and Azerbaijani flags in Yerevan.

"There can be no more absurd way of delivering a political or diplomatic message to a country than by burning its flag," he said.

"The peace process currently underway reflects a convergence of interests between Azerbaijan and Armenia," Mustafayeva noted.

"For Baku, the most important issue is the extent to which Armenia continues to adhere to the peace agenda, and the elections are expected to provide a clearer indication of that commitment."

Both Azerbaijan and Armenia have taken steps aimed at fostering mutual trust. Azerbaijan eased restrictions on cargo destined for Armenia, contributing to the functioning of regional trade and transportation routes. The launch of Azerbaijani oil exports to Armenia was recorded as a notable milestone in economic relations and a shift toward pragmatic cooperation.

According to Demirtürk, if Pashinyan remains in power, ongoing bilateral agreements could further strengthen regional connectivity and expand Armenia's role as a transit route.

The country could become an increasingly important transportation hub alongside the proposed Zangezur Corridor, with the potential development of new road and railway links facilitating trade and movement across the region.