Türkiye’s population is aging at an accelerating pace, with official projections showing that the share of people aged 65 and over is expected to rise sharply in the coming decades and overtake the child population by mid-century.

Current data indicate that the elderly population already accounts for more than one-tenth of the country’s total population, marking a significant demographic turning point with long-term social and economic implications.

According to the Address-Based Population Registration System 2025 Results released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the number of people aged 65 and over in Türkiye has reached 9,583,059.

The data shows that the elderly population, which stood at 9,112,298 in 2024, rose by 470,761 within a single year. As a result, the share of those aged 65 and over increased by 0.5% points, from 10.6% to 11.1%. This steady rise underscores the pace at which demographic aging is advancing across the country.

In 2021, the number of people aged 65 and over was recorded at 8,245,124. Over the past five years, this figure has grown by 1,337,935, drawing attention to the cumulative impact of declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy.

Ismet Koç, director of the Population Studies Institute at Hacettepe University, said Türkiye’s population continues to age and that the median age has risen to 34.9. He noted that the elderly population’s share has now exceeded 11% of the total population and is expected to continue increasing.

"According to population projections, this trend will persist in the coming years,” Koç said. "By 2050, the proportion of the elderly population in Türkiye is expected to reach 23%, surpassing the proportion of the child population.”

Koç added that the median age of the population is projected to climb further, reaching 44.8 by 2050. He said this development is driven by two fundamental demographic dynamics that have been reshaping Türkiye’s population structure over recent decades.

"The first is the sharp decline in fertility,” he said. "Over the past 50 years, the number of births per woman has fallen from 4.1 children to 1.48 children. The second factor is the rise in life expectancy at birth, which has increased in line with declining mortality rates to 78 years for men and 81 years for women.”

According to Koç, the combined effect of these two trends means that Türkiye’s median age will continue to rise in the years ahead. One of the most significant demographic transformations facing the country, he said, will be the point at which the elderly population first matches and then exceeds the child population.

Koç noted that similar demographic transitions have already occurred, or are continuing, in countries with high elderly population ratios such as Japan and South Korea, as well as in many Western European countries. He warned that Türkiye may follow a comparable trajectory if current fertility trends are not reversed.

"Studies show that fertility rates are likely to decline further in the near future, potentially falling to around 1.4,” he said.

"To raise birth rates, financial measures such as child and birth allowances and tax reductions are needed, along with in-kind support covering infancy and education-related needs,” Koç said.

"In addition, there must be integrated policies, including long-term and paid maternity and paternity leave, widespread and free child care services for infants, and guaranteed return-to-work arrangements after childbirth and parental leave, especially for mothers,” he added.

He said that while Türkiye has recently implemented some family-focused policies, these measures need to be strengthened both financially and institutionally. Koç pointed to France and Scandinavian countries as examples where parental leave systems and childcare services are more comprehensive and supportive.

"Population policy requires patience and continuity,” Koç said. "Türkiye needs strategies spread over time, first to protect current fertility levels and then to raise them gradually. Without such an approach, demographic aging will continue to accelerate, with far-reaching consequences for the labor market, social security systems, healthcare services, and overall economic sustainability.”