Türkiye is entering a structurally transformative demographic era as its fertility rate drops below the population renewal threshold, signaling the onset of a profound aging cycle with multidimensional socio-economic implications.
Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) Deputy President Furkan Metin, speaking on the country’s declining population growth on Tuesday, emphasized that the demographic tone of the nation has shifted entirely. “In the 1990s, Türkiye was like a 20-year-old young adult. If the downturn in fertility continues at this pace, the median age will surpass 45 within approximately 40 years. The vitality and economic dynamism of a Türkiye in its mid-40s will not mirror the demographic energy the country possessed in its 20s.”
TurkStat findings show that Türkiye’s total fertility rate, measured at 2.38 children per woman in 2001, began its uninterrupted decline in 2014. The rate slipped from 2.19 in 2014 to 2.16 in 2015, 2.11 in 2016, 2.08 in 2017 and 2.00 in 2018. Starting from 2019, the decline accelerated more sharply, falling to 1.89 in 2019, 1.77 in 2020, 1.71 in 2021, 1.63 in 2022, 1.51 in 2023 and reaching 1.48 in 2024 – placing the country well below the replacement threshold of 2.1.
Experts warn that if Türkiye maintains this trajectory, its fertility figures will remain beneath the European Union average, signaling a shift into the “very aged nations” category.
Metin noted that with the current fertility pattern approaching 1.4, Türkiye is nearing a “high alarm” demographic state. He added that Türkiye was officially classified last year among the world’s “very old” countries, projecting that the proportion of citizens above the age of 65 could exceed 25% in the next quarter-century.
The deputy head of TurkStat underscored that the country is already within a demographic crisis window, adding that if current trends persist across the next decade, structural reversibility will be increasingly unlikely. The aging curve, he stressed, will weigh heavily on pension systems, health care spending, labor-market participation and intergenerational support structures.
Metin further warned that Türkiye’s social security framework, in its current configuration, cannot withstand the impending demographic load. “The collapse of the working-age population relative to retirees will rewrite the country’s fiscal balance sheet,” he noted.
Metin pinpointed delayed marriage, late childbearing and the extraordinarily high rate of cesarean deliveries as key drivers suppressing child numbers. “Türkiye ranks first globally in cesarean birth rates. Individuals marry late and predominantly give birth through C-section, making it difficult to move beyond one child even if they wish to have two or three.”
He cautioned that isolation will increasingly define household compositions: “One in every five households consists of a single person, 35% of whom are women over age 55. Family significance emerges most forcefully in later life, but regrets tied to childbearing cannot be corrected at that stage. As a nation, we are missing this demographic threshold.”
National Defense University Naval Academy Dean Cemalettin Şahin asserted that Türkiye’s demographic contraction is neither sudden nor new, emphasizing that the decline has spanned at least two decades. He referenced Atatürk’s stated vision of “a Türkiye of 100 million citizens,” noting that in 1930, state incentives awarded women with six or more children both medals and financial compensation and prohibited elective abortions.
Şahin observed that by the late 1950s, national discourse on population shifted, with campaigns led by newspapers and external organizations advocating birth control and systematic demographic reduction. “In 1963, the Ministry of Health commissioned a report, followed by formal population planning legislation in 1965. Every policy instrument was operationalized to reduce population levels.”
Şahin countered the prevailing public belief that economic strain deters childbirth. “If financial stability were the primary determinant, Sweden, Norway, the U.K., and Germany would be experiencing population surges. The most affluent nations are not growing at all. This is a cultural transformation, not a monetary one.”
He added that Türkiye now lacks the domestic labor capacity to maintain agricultural productivity in core crop sectors: “Türkiye is short of the human capital required to harvest its own hazelnuts, cotton and tea. The demographic outlook is not encouraging. A full-scale nationwide mobilization is required.”
