Turkey's take on Trump's plan for Syria safe zones

An executive order drafted for U.S. President Donald Trump, which was leaked to the media on Thursday, indicates that the White House is preparing to create multiple "safe zones" in Syria and neighboring countries. In an interview with ABC's David Muir, Trump pledged to "absolutely do safe zones in Syria" to control the flow of Syrian refugees escaping the six-year civil war to Europe.

For years, Turkey and the U.S. had been negotiating the creation of safe zones and the enforcement of no-fly zones in Syria. Frustrated with the Obama administration's unwillingness to take action, the Turks last year launched Operation Euphrates Shield, a military incursion into Syria, to remove terrorist groups from their borders and keep illegal immigration under control.

To be clear, the Trump administration's plans to create safe zones in Syria sent shockwaves through foreign policy circles around the world, mainly because the situation in the country underwent major changes over the past three months. Turkey and Russia not only brokered a cease-fire between the Assad regime and the rebels but also successfully convened a summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, earlier this week to create a tripartite mechanism between Ankara, Moscow and Tehran to monitor cease-fire violations, which largely sidelined the United States.

An attempt by the White House to create safe zones in Syria, where a cease-fire remains in effect, raises questions about the Trump administration's policy goals. Does Trump want to keep the refugee flow under control or get back in the game? The answer to this question has serious implications for the future of the Middle East.

If the administration really wants to stop refugees, the proposed safe zones would have to be created in predominantly Arab parts of Syria, such as the rebel-held northwestern province of Idlib where Washington could work with Turkey. Other opposition-controlled parts of Syria, along with the Jordanian border, could be feasible as well. Judging by the U.S. president's ABC interview and a recent decision by the administration to impose new restrictions on immigration from certain countries, this could indeed be the plan. However, it is important to understand that Moscow, Tehran and Damascus would be concerned about Washington's plans with the cease-fire still in effect. If Syria sets the stage for a military showdown between Russia and the United States, a return to violence could be inevitable. To make matters worse, even the Turks, who have been calling for safe zones since 2012, might distance themselves from Washington's overdue and untimely Syria move.

If Trump wants to reassert U.S. influence in Syria under the pretext of stemming illegal immigration, it is safe to assume that the proposed safe zones would be set up in parts of the country controlled by the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the PKK's Syrian franchise. In doing so, the administration could hope to get back in the game without confronting the Russians. The downside of this policy would be to stir unrest among and incite violence against Arabs, other non-Kurds and Kurdish rivals against the PYD.

Provided that the U.S. had been setting up military bases in PYD-controlled parts of northern Syria and arming the PYD's armed People's Protection Units (YPG) militants for some time, Washington's moves could be seen as laying the groundwork for the creation of safe zones in the area to which Russia, Iran and the Assad regime would not object unless their interests are directly threatened by U.S. actions. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the same goes for Turkey.