Argentines head to the polls Sunday, after a year of twists and turns in a dramatic election race that has been chastening for conservative President Mauricio Macri, who trails well behind Peronist rival Alberto Fernandez in the polls. The ballot - that many have already called for Fernandez — is a referendum between Macri's tough-love austerity and the "social contract" of the left-leaning opposition, whose populism has lured voters, hurt badly by a snarling economic crisis. Argentina's choice could have far-reaching implications: it is one the world's top grain exporters, is stirring the energy world with its huge Vaca Muerta shale field and is on the cusp of restructuring talks with creditors over $100 billion in debt.
"What's in play in this election are simply two opposing views of the country," said José Luis Salomón, mayor of farming town Saladillo, who is supporting Macri and holds out hope that he can force a second round. Not many agree. Fernandez, a relative unknown until this year outside Argentine political circles, holds a 20-point lead in most polls after thumping Macri in an August primary, a shock result that rattled markets as investors feared a populist political shift.
That result — and the sharp market crash that followed — radically altered the dynamic of the race, pushing the country further into economic crisis and making Macri the underdog in an election that most had thought would be a close-run affair. The economy has come center stage with the country in the grip of recession for most of the last year, the outlook for growth darkening, annual inflation over 50%, job numbers down and poverty up sharply. Nohelia Pol, 31, a trader in Buenos Aires said she was going to vote for Fernandez, who he saw as having "fairer" policies to help people across the social spectrum. "I also hope that he will be able to get out country's economy going again a bit and get us out of the debt generated by our current president Macri." The conservative incumbent won backers with plans to reform Argentina's notoriously closed economy with trade deals and a successful push to lure foreign investment into energy projects and infrastructure. Macri's reforms plans, however, were badly hit in 2018 when a currency and debt crisis forced him to strike a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for an eventual $57 billion to help the country to pay its bills. Fernández now looks set to take over Macri's mantle — as well as ongoing negotiations with creditors, including the IMF, about restructuring over $100 billion in sovereign debt amid fears the country could face a damaging default. Fernandez, running with populist ex-President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, won the primary by almost 16 points, a feat which if repeated on Sunday would hand him the presidency outright, without needing a second round run-off.
Most investors are already pricing in a Peronist opposition win, though a big victory could lead to renewed volatility in the markets, which have been constrained to a degree by recently imposed capital controls. Fernández, a former Cabinet chief, is seen as a moderate within the broad Peronist flank whose diplomacy skills have helped unite what was a fractured movement. Polls open at 8 a.m., with the rival candidates needing 45% of the vote or 40% with a 10-point lead over the runner-up to avoid a second round, which if needed would be held on Nov. 24. Voting goes on until 6 p.m. (2100 GMT), with the first results expected a few hours later. Voters will chose presidential candidates, along with deputies, senators, governors and local leaders.
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Research Associate at Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA) at Istanbul Sabahattin Zaim University