Analysts, mutual-fund managers and other forecasters are telling investors to expect lower returns from stocks and bonds in 2016 than in past years. They're also predicting more severe swings in prices. Remember that 10 percent drop for stocks that freaked investors out in August? ıt likely won't take another four years for the next one.

The good news is that few economists are predicting a recession in 2016. That means stocks and other investments can avoid a sustained slide and keep grinding higher, analysts say. Next year is expected to look more like this year, with gyrating stock prices on track to end close to where they started, than the bull market's euphoric earlier years like 2013 and its 32 percent surge in the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

The list of reasons for muted expectations is long. Economic growth around the world remains frustratingly weak, and earnings growth for big U.S. companies has stalled. Stock prices aren't cheap when measured against corporate earnings, unlike the early years of this bull market. The Federal Reserve also just lifted short-term interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. Besides making all kinds of markets more volatile, higher rates could also hurt prices of bonds in investors' and mutual funds' portfolios.

Analysts cite a long list of risks that could upend their forecasts. Investments could tank if an unexpected spike in inflation rips through the global economy, for example, or if the slowdown in the world's second-largest economy, China, ends up even more severe than feared.

"We think investors will be rewarded over the next five to 10 years with decent inflation-adjusted returns," said Joe Davis, global head of the investment strategy group at mutual-fund giant Vanguard. "That said, they will likely pale in comparison to the strong returns we've had over the last five."