China's trade grew by a fifth in the first two months of the year, far exceeding forecasts as stronger exports to major markets balanced out a drop in shipments to the U.S., according to official data released on Tuesday.
The boost is a lifeline for the world's second-largest economy as domestic consumer activity has slumped, and adds to the record surplus achieved last year.
Official figures for the first two months of the year – usually combined to account for distortions arising from the varying Lunar New Year holiday – showed a strong start to 2026, before war broke out in the Middle East.
Exports climbed 21.8% year-over-year, the General Administration of Customs said, beating the 7.2% predicted in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
"Exports are likely to remain robust given the recent decline in U.S. tariffs and strong demand for semiconductors," said Zichun Huang of Capital Economics.
Many of China's key trading partners have increasingly called on Beijing to reduce its soaring trade surplus owing to its impact on local competition.
Globally, China saw significant increases in exports of products including automobiles, clothing and household appliances during the two months, the customs data showed.
The reading comes as Chinese leaders gather for a closely watched annual political meeting, which last week saw the government announce its lowest economic growth target in decades.
Among the challenges is a years-long slump in domestic spending, which has failed to recover since the end of the pandemic.
But in a sign of rebounding activity, the latest figures showed imports soared 19.8% in January-February, smashing the 7% estimated in the Bloomberg survey.
The jump follows official data on Monday that revealed consumer prices rose last month at their fastest pace in three years.
Meanwhile, exports to the U.S. sank 11.0% as President Donald Trump pressed ahead with his tariff campaign.
Beijing and Washington were locked in a blistering trade war last year, which at one point saw reciprocal levies in the triple digits.
There are hopes that tensions could cool, with Trump set to travel to China at the end of the month.
Shipments to the U.S. totalled $67.24 billion in January-February, the figures showed, compared with $75.56 billion in the same period last year.
That was offset, though, by exports to the European Union, which jumped 27.8%, while those to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) climbed 29.2%.
However, "events in the Middle East will increase China's oil import bill but weigh on its import volumes," Huang said in a note.
Worries about the global economy have intensified this month after the U.S.-Israel war on Iran sent oil prices soaring to their highest since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The conflict has seen the crucial Strait of Hormuz – through which a fifth of global oil travels – effectively shut off.
With tensions already rising last month, imports of oil by China – the world's largest importer of the commodity – jumped 16% in January-February combined, the customs data showed Tuesday.
The strong export growth will likely "reinforce" the argument of trading partners concerned about China's ballooning trade imbalance, wrote Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management.
Commerce Minister Wang Wentao acknowledged that China's trade needed balancing when he spoke at a news event on Friday on the sidelines of the "Two Sessions" political meeting in Beijing.
"Exports and imports are like the two wheels of a vehicle. If they are balanced, the vehicle runs smoothly and goes further," Wang said.
Pinpoint's Zhang added that strong exports and a lower official growth target "suggest that China is unlikely to launch stimulus any time soon."
