Business activity in the eurozone contracted for the first time in five months in May, weighed down by surprising weakness in the services sector, the bloc's engine in the past, a closely watched survey showed Thursday.
Europe's growth has trailed global peers, particularly the U.S., since the pandemic and predictions for a rebound have been proven wrong time and again as firms hold back investment, households sit on savings and governments fail to enact the sort of structural policies that would reduce inefficiency.
The closely watched composite HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the bloc dropped to 49.5 in May from April's 50.4, dropping below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction and falling short of the 50.7 expectation in a Reuters poll of economists.
The figure is especially worrisome for services, the driver of growth in recent years, as it was the main culprit in the decline, although economists cautioned against reaching firm conclusions since the noise generated by rapidly shifting U.S. trade policy was a key factor.
This week, the European Commission, the EU's executive body, cut its economic growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9%, from a previous prediction of 1.3%.
The reduced output in services – 48.9 in May compared with 50.1 in April – stood in contrast with growth in manufacturing output of 51.5 in May, unchanged from April.
"The trade war is weighing on the eurozone economy, but likely mostly through the uncertainty channel rather than direct trade effects so far," ING economist Bert Colijn said.
"Sluggishness remains the name of the game for eurozone economic activity, and risks seem to be to the downside for the short term as the trade war could intensify," Colijn added.
While even HCOB acknowledged that figures were weak, it said there was some good news in the outlook.
"There are reasons for confidence in the longer term," HCOB chief economist Cyrus de la Rubia said. "The recovery in manufacturing is broad-based, with encouraging signs coming out of both Germany and France."
"Germany, in particular, might be gearing up to reclaim its role as the euro zone’s economic engine, thanks to a potentially very expansionary fiscal policy," he said.
Germany plans a historic spending package to boost defense and invest in infrastructure.
Signalling heightened expectations for the new German government, the Ifo Institute's monthly sentiment indicator rose a touch more than predicted this month and expectations rose sharply in both wholesale and retail trade.
"The German economy is slowly regaining its footing," Ifo President Clemens Fuest said.
Economists added that seven interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the past year were also propping up sentiment and reducing cost, especially since the bank is still not done easing and a few more steps are likely.
"The fifth consecutive increase in the Ifo business climate index shows that German companies defied Trump's tariff shock also in May," Commerzbank economist Joerg Kraemer said. "Apparently, the positive effects of the ECB's rate cuts outweigh the higher tariffs."
Still, economists said the lukewarm readings on current business conditions combined with only a modestly optimistic outlook add up to tepid growth, fraught with downside risks.
The ECB and the European Commission both see the eurozone growing by less than 1% this year, much like last year, and see risks tilted to more negative outcomes, especially if the trade war intensifies.
"We think that uncertainty will continue to drive a negative momentum in the PMI figures, at least until the U.S. and EU sign a (trade) deal," Christophe Boucher at ABN AMRO Investment Solutions said.
