Most U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers expect another interest rate hike by the end of the year as stubborn inflation and elevated energy prices continue to complicate the central bank’s efforts to bring price pressures under control, minutes released Wednesday showed.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously at its September meeting to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%.
U.S. households and businesses have faced years of elevated prices since the COVID-19 pandemic, while inflation has remained above the Fed’s long-term 2% target for more than five years.
“With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond the current meeting, most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end,” the minutes said.
Several policymakers said they believed the previous policy rate had not been sufficiently restrictive to curb economic activity.
The Fed has a dual mandate to maintain price stability while supporting maximum employment.
The U.S. unemployment rate has remained relatively stable over the past year despite fluctuations in job growth, partly reflecting demographic shifts and lower immigration.
“Almost all participants assessed that, while inflation risks were tilted to the upside, risks to the labor market had diminished and were now broadly balanced,” the minutes said.
Inflation measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge, peaked at 7.2% in June 2022 before declining.
It fell to 2.2% in September 2024 before accelerating again, partly amid the Trump administration’s tariffs on U.S. imports and other economic policy changes.
Energy prices have risen further since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war in February, as Iranian retaliation disrupted energy markets.
PCE inflation reached 3.8% in May, its highest level in three years, before easing to 3.4% in August, the latest month for which data is available.
Policymakers said recent progress in bringing inflation down had been insufficient.
They noted that geopolitical developments had driven up crude oil and refined fuel prices, while a surge in artificial intelligence-related investment was also contributing to inflationary pressures.
Officials also warned that the longer energy prices remain elevated, the greater the risk that rising costs in individual sectors could spread into broader price pressures.
