Turkey’s central bank is expected to keep tightening policy and raise its key interest rate again this week, surveys showed.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is seen raising its one-week repo rate a bit more by year-end after it surprised last month with a 200-point hike meant to address inflation and the Turkish lira.
It hiked the one-week repo rate to 10.25%, up from 8.25%, where it was held since May, in the middle of Turkey’s coronavirus lockdown.
A Reuters poll expects the bank to hike its policy by 175 basis points to 12% this week.
The expectations of 17 economists polled by Reuters ranged between hikes of 100 basis points and 300 basis points at Thursday’s policy meeting. The median put the rate at 12%, just above annual inflation.
An Anadolu Agency (AA) survey of 17 economists also predicted a rise in interest rates, ranging between 100 and 200 basis points.
For year-end, the median forecast of 15 economists was for a 12.25% interest rate, though views ranged to as high as 17%, according to the Reuters poll.
The average year-end interest rate forecast in the AA survey stood at 12.25%, ranging from 11.75% to 15%.
The central bank is also expected to continue so-called backdoor measures to tighten credit by raising the average cost of funding, which was 12.26% on Friday, up from a low of 7.34% in mid-July.
Such funding costs would rise to 13% by the end of October, according to the median poll response of seven economists. They were seen rising to about 13.5% by year-end.
The formal rate hike in September reversed a nearly yearlong easing cycle in which the policy rate fell rapidly from 24%.