Türkiye's current account recorded a surplus of $2.72 billion in September, official data showed Friday, primarily driven by a lower trade gap despite a deterioration in the energy trade balance as the U.S.-Iran war has pushed energy prices up.
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said the 12-month rolling current account deficit has narrowed to $39.2 billion, from $41.3 billion in the previous month, and that he expects the gap to stand at 2.2% of national income this year.
The surplus compares to a mere $600 million in the same month last year and is just under the median forecast of $2.75 billion in a Bloomberg survey of economists. In August, the current account posted a surplus of $4.05 billion.
Excluding gold and energy, the current account showed a surplus of $7.34 billion in September, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) said.
The data shows that the large surplus is attributable to a moderation in domestic demand and lower net gold imports, which helped offset the widening net energy trade deficit driven by higher energy prices, analysts at the Dutch financial giant ING said.
The foreign trade deficit, as defined in the balance of payments, was $3.64 billion. That compared to a gap of $5.4 billion in the previous month and was supported by an increase in core trade surplus and gold trade turning positive, they wrote.
Higher services income, more than offsetting deterioration in the primary and secondary income balances, also contributed to the current account's rising surplus, the analysts said.
Net inflows from services came to just over $9 billion in September, according to the central bank. Travel brought in a net $6.57 billion and transportation a net $3.1 billion.
On a 12-month basis, the foreign trade deficit stood at $76.8 billion. The services balance showed a surplus of $66.1 billion, while the primary income balance was $26.3 billion in deficit and the secondary income balance was $2.1 billion in deficit.
Net direct investment inflows were $859 million in September. Foreign residents' direct investment in Türkiye rose by nearly $1.52 billion, while Turkish residents' direct investment abroad rose by $649 million.
Portfolio investment saw a net outflow of $7.73 billion. Foreign investors were net sellers of $5.86 billion in the stock and investment fund markets and of $495 million in domestic government bonds.
Banks made net repayments of $820 million on foreign loans in September, while other sectors drew a net $1.86 billion. Official reserves fell by just over $10 billion.
The central bank included crypto asset transactions in its balance of payments statistics for the first time, using data from the Central Registry Agency, Türkiye's securities depository.
In September, residents made net sales of crypto assets with no counterpart liability of $21 million and bought $49 million of stablecoins.
Şimşek said exports of goods and services over the past 12 months topped $410 billion, helped by goods exports and tourism revenue.
He said the current account deficit was 1.9% of national income in 2025, and that the government expects a limited rise this year to 2.2%.
That is below the forecast in the government's Medium-Term Program (MTP) and in line with its estimate for the third quarter, he said.
The September surplus narrowed the 12-month rolling deficit to approximately 2.4% of GDP.
Şimşek recalled that the rise in energy prices after the war between Russia and Ukraine had sharply widened Türkiye's current account deficit. He said the gap as a share of national income has stayed roughly flat during the most recent period, which has seen one of the biggest energy supply shocks in recent history due to the Iran war.
He called that a sign of the economy's growing resilience and a concrete result of policies that put macrofinancial stability first.
Şimşek said the government will continue policies to improve the quality of exports and their competitiveness. These include more diverse products and markets, support for high-value, technology-intensive production, faster adjustment to the green and digital transitions and more varied services exports.
Preliminary customs data from the Trade Ministry points to a higher surplus in the October current account and a further improvement in the 12-month rolling deficit, ING analysts said.
"In the months ahead, the trajectory of the current account balance is expected to be influenced by a mix of external risks alongside domestic demand conditions," they wrote. "Here, any signs of a potential U.S.-Iran agreement being reached would support easing pressure on energy prices."
