Inflation in the United States increased less than expected in August, even as consumers stepped up spending, according to data Wednesday that could prompt markets to further reduce the odds of another interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve (Fed) next month.
Consumer prices rose 3.4% last month compared with a year earlier, the Commerce Department said, below economists' expectations of 3.7%. On a monthly basis, inflation climbed 0.3%, up from 0.1% in July, a sign that prices are still running hot.
Excluding the volatile energy and food categories, inflation also came in lower than expected, rising 3% in August from a year ago. And from July to August, core prices rose just 0.2%, up from 0.1% the previous month. Many economists feared core prices would rise more quickly month-to-month.
U.S. markets bounced higher immediately on the new inflation reading, with investors betting that an expected interest rate hike from the Fed might be delayed.
Even so, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and the monthly increase in August suggests it isn't moving back toward the target anytime soon.
The Fed lifted its key short-term interest rate two weeks ago for the first time in three years to combat inflation, and most economists expect it will do so at least once more this year, possibly as soon as late next month.
"Inflation's trend is lower but still not close to their target and not improving, either," Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank, said in an email.
Wednesday's report covered a key inflation gauge closely watched by the Fed, known as the personal consumption expenditures price index. It is similar to the higher-profile consumer price index, which was released earlier this month.
High prices have cast a pall on the U.S. economy, even as growth is mostly solid and the unemployment rate is low. On Tuesday, the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey fell to its lowest level since 2014, a period that includes both the Great Recession and a global pandemic.
Americans' paychecks are growing but not as quickly as prices.
Inflation for July was previously reported at 3.7% but was revised lower to 3.4% by the government as part of an update in how it measures price changes in several categories, including investment management, computer software and accessories, and legal services.
For example, the government previously put a heavy weight on some computer accessories that have jumped in price because of outsized demand from the AI buildout. The revisions lowered that weight and as a result, the higher prices for some computer equipment are not driving up this measure of inflation as much.
Despite elevated prices, Americans accelerated their spending last month, the government said, with spending jumping 0.9% from July to August, up from just 0.1% the previous month.
Some of that increase was likely fueled by wealthier Americans cashing in their gains from higher stock prices, a recent report from JPMorgan suggests. Other consumers may be taking on more debt to support their spending.
After-tax incomes, adjusted for inflation, were unchanged on a monthly basis in August, after rising 0.3% in July, the report said.
Healthy consumer spending could fuel a pickup in growth. In a separate report Wednesday, the government said the economy expanded at a 2.2% annual pace in the July-September quarter. Analysts expect that to pick up to a 3% rate in the current quarter.
