A lot has changed in the four months since the leaders of the two global superpowers last met: Xi Jinping has overseen a surge in China's trade, while Donald Trump has struggled with falling approval ratings at home.
That shift in fortunes has tempered expectations for their summit in Washington this week, analysts say, with Xi in no rush to make concessions and Trump constrained by a costly war with Iran that has hurt both his popularity and Americans' wallets.
While thorny issues like Taiwan may surface, the main focus of the Sept. 24 meeting is whether the leaders will signal an extension to a trade truce struck last year that averted a major shock to the global economy.
"Xi is not really looking for anything tangible. He wants to extend the gentleman's agreement with Trump so that China has time to fortify itself," said Jon Czin, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution who formerly served as China director at the U.S. National Security Council.
White House officials have sought to downplay the potential for major breakthroughs.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng helmed preparatory talks in New York Sunday aimed at teeing up some potential agreements on AI guardrails and trade in non-sensitive products.
That is a far cry from Trump's vow when he returned to office in 2025 to use tariffs to address a trade imbalance with China that was "killing" the United States.
But since agreeing the truce with Xi in October of that year, his attention has been divided among myriad other foreign policy battles, from the wars in Iran and Ukraine to disputes with Europe over free speech.
China has faced its own challenges, such as slowing domestic demand and a protracted property crisis, but the export juggernaut that Trump sought to tame has kept roaring in what economists are increasingly referring to as China Shock 2.0.
China has found new markets and boxed out competition from other industrialized countries. It is exporting more of its goods to the rest of the world, with a $1.2 trillion global trade surplus last year, particularly as its low-priced electric vehicles undercut the auto sectors in Germany, Japan and South Korea.
Its surplus is on pace to top $1 trillion for a second straight year.
While U.S. efforts to curb the cheap parcels that online retailers such as Shein and Temu rely on have worked, more than half of the roughly 6,500 product categories China sold to the U.S. so far this year have grown compared to 2025.
A delegation of Chinese business leaders, potentially including some firms facing U.S. regulatory scrutiny as they seek greater market access, is set to accompany Xi to Washington.
The Trump administration "thought they could use massive unilateral pressure to force China to make concessions, and that did not occur," said Scott Kennedy, an expert on the U.S.-China economic relationship at Washington-based think tank CSIS.
"Now this is Xi Jinping's world, and we're all living in it."
If Xi is in the driver's seat as analysts suggest, that will further unnerve U.S. allies in Asia who expect the Chinese leader to push Trump to soften Washington's support for Taiwan.
Xi repeatedly asked him about Taiwan when they met in Beijing in May, including about arms sales and Washington's resolve to defend the island, Trump told reporters.
The U.S. president described a pending $14 billion arms package for Taiwan as a "negotiating chip" with Beijing.
Some officials in Taipei and Tokyo worry he may be tempted to cash in that chip for political wins ahead of November's midterm elections, which could prove challenging for his Republican Party.
That could include Chinese purchases of Boeing jets or farm goods, or commitments to curb the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals that have fueled the U.S. opioid crisis.
"China-U.S. ties have become more transactional," said Wu Xinbo, a professor at Shanghai's Fudan University who advises China's Foreign Ministry.
While Washington may want to prioritize trade talks, for Beijing, the U.S. approach to Taiwan could be key, he said.
"If you accommodate our concern on the Taiwan issue, then we would be willing to accommodate your concerns on other issues, be it law enforcement or on purchases of U.S. agricultural products," Wu said.
Washington also sees Xi as uniquely able to exert pressure on Iran to bring an end to the war that has dragged Trump's approval rating to the lowest of his political career.
However, Xi has shown little inclination to do so. Beijing is reportedly selling billions of dollars' worth of goods to Iran through a sanctions-evasion scheme. China's Foreign Ministry says it is not aware of such a scheme.
U.S. threats last month of secondary sanctions on countries doing business with Iran – which Bessent called an "Economic D-Day" – appear not to have yet been wielded against Tehran's largest trading partner.
That is more evidence, analysts say, that Trump is eager to keep relations with Xi steady as he focuses his energies elsewhere – an arrangement that also suits the Chinese leader.
"Both Xi and Trump feel it's quite helpful to have stability in the relationship so that they can focus on more pressing things," said Ruby Osman, senior geopolitical researcher at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
"For Trump, that is Iran. For Xi, that is building out China's domestic resilience for whatever comes after Trump."
