The probability of Turkey’s state energy company Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) delivering gas in 2023 has risen significantly, with three contractors employed on the project since the third quarter of last year, according to Julian Bowden, a senior visiting research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Bowden’s comments come amid skepticism over TPAO's ability to develop the sizable gas resources discovered since August 2020 in the Black Sea’s Sakarya field, which after further drilling proved even larger than first anticipated.

With help from three international companies, Bowden surmises that TPAO will be able to have some field production on the schedule for the second half of next year.

Schlumberger & Subsea 7 have been awarded the EPIC contract (engineering, procurement, construction, installation) to develop the field. Saipem was contracted for pipelaying and the global leader in consulting and engineering across energy, Wood, is engaged for integrated project management.

“These are all world class companies and should enable TPAO to deliver the project more or less on schedule,” Bowden said.

Turkey last week laid the first pipes for the underwater pipeline network that will transport onshore the gas that the country hopes will help it wean off its dependence on energy imports.

The pipeline that will connect the wells in the Sakarya gas field to the gas processing facility in the northern Black Sea province of Zonguldak will start pumping the gas as of the first quarter of 2023, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said.

“In the first quarter of 2023, we will have transferred 10 million cubic meters of natural gas per day, which will be produced in the first phase, to our national transmission system,” Erdoğan said.

“Sakarya Gas Field will reach peak production from 2026.”

Located around 150 kilometers (93 miles) off the coast of Turkey in the Black Sea, the gas field is home to the country’s largest-ever natural gas discovery. Its Fatih drillship discovered 540 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas there in August 2020.

The pipeline that will stretch around 170 kilometers and connect the wells in the region to the main grid will be laid at a water depth of 2,200 meters.

Although Bowen said managing the first gas production in the first quarter of 2023 looks hard, he was hopeful of the possibility of some production in the second half of the year from today’s perspective.

“This is a large complex project, and even if first production doesn't happen until 2024, it will still be a remarkable performance: to get first production in a new province in 3.5 years to maybe 4.5 years is a great achievement,” he added.

Nevertheless, he is optimistic that all parties involved will do their best to achieve first production in the centenary year of the Turkish republic next year.

Bowden believes that production from Sakarya will be a game changer for Turkey, allowing the country to become a producer for the first time.

“When Phase 2 is complete, scheduled 2027-28, production is targeted at 14-15 billion cubic meters per year, representing around 25% of current demand. With imports being both large and expensive, Sakarya will undoubtedly become an important national asset,” Bowden said.

Turkey is still highly dependent on imports to cover its energy needs, whose price has rocketed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Last year, 45% of the gas used in Turkey came from Russia and the rest from Iran and Azerbaijan.

Turkey’s annual gas consumption has risen from 48 bcm in 2020 to a record 60 bcm in 2021 and is expected to reach 62-63 bcm this year, according to official figures.