To recover the energy output lost in the Middle East from the conflict there will take about two years, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said on Friday, while signaling that further emergency stock releases remain under consideration.
"That will vary from country to country. In Iraq, for example, it will take much longer than in Saudi Arabia," Birol told an interview with Switzerland's German-language daily Neue Zuercher Zeitung newspaper.
"However, we estimate it will take approximately two years overall to reach pre-war levels again," he said.
Birol added that the market was underestimating the consequences of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
But he said production would improve significantly once the key waterway reopens; however, reaching full capacity would still take time.
Shipments of oil and gas that were already en route to their destinations before the war in Iran began have now arrived, mitigating the impact of shortages, he said.
"But no new tankers were loaded in March. There were no new deliveries of oil, gas or fuels to Asian markets. This gap is now becoming apparent. If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, we must prepare for significantly higher energy prices."
He said poorer countries could face the heaviest burden because weaker currencies and limited financial resources leave them more exposed to rising import costs.
Asked whether the IEA could carry out another release of emergency oil reserves after its March move, Birol said the agency was ready to act immediately and decisively.
"We're not there yet, but it's definitely under consideration," Birol said.
In March, the agency released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest drawdown in the agency's history.
Birol stressed reserve releases can only ease short-term bottlenecks, noting that the most important step for stabilizing energy supply is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Any move that helps reopen the waterway would be positive, he added.
Birol also said the IEA is tracking widespread damage to regional energy infrastructure, warning that markets should not expect an immediate return to normal even after the strait reopens.
He also warned that shortages of refined products such as kerosene and diesel could emerge if crude shipments fail to reach refineries, raising the risk of flight disruptions, cancellations, and industrial supply problems in some countries.
