Russia will see revenue from its biggest single oil tax double to $9 billion in April due to the energy crisis triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, calculations showed Thursday.
The Reuters calculation provides some of the first concrete evidence of a windfall for Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, from the war. Oil traders say the conflict has triggered the most serious energy crisis in recent history.
Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz – a route for about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows – after U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran at the end of February, sending Brent futures shooting well past $100 per barrel.
Russia's main revenue from its vast oil and gas industry is based on production. Export duty on crude oil was nullified at the start of 2024 as part of a wider "tax maneuver," a yearslong reform of the industry.
According to Reuters calculations based on preliminary production data and oil prices, Russia's mineral extraction tax on oil output will increase in April to around 700 billion rubles ($9 billion) from 327 billion rubles in March. The revenue is up by about 10% from April last year.
For the whole of 2026, Russia has budgeted for 7.9 trillion rubles from the mineral extraction tax.
The average price of Russia's Urals crude, used for taxation, jumped to $77 per barrel in March, its highest since October 2023, according to Economy Ministry data.
That was up 73% from February's $44.59 per barrel and above the $59 level assumed in this year's state budget. The Kremlin said Tuesday there were a huge number of requests for Russian energy from a range of places amid a grave global energy crisis that is shaking the foundations of the oil and gas markets.
Still, there are limits on the windfall, and economists inside Russia have repeatedly cautioned that 2026 could be a tough year.
Russia ran a budget deficit of 4.58 trillion rubles, or 1.9% of gross domestic product, in the first quarter of 2026, the Finance Ministry said Wednesday. Additionally, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure aimed at crippling Moscow's finances have contributed to lower earnings and threaten oil production cuts.
The size of the windfall for Russia will ultimately depend on how long the Iran crisis lasts.
