U.S. stocks opened 2026 on a positive note, but face a major test as earnings season kicks off and fresh inflation data arrives against a backdrop of rising geopolitical uncertainty.
The S&P 500 is up nearly 2% already in January, on the heels of the benchmark index in 2025 closing out its third straight year of double-digit percentage gains. Stocks jumped on Friday after mixed jobs data that saw traders maintain expectations for more interest rate cuts this year.
The market's recent strength has defied an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape. After a U.S. military operation that seized Venezuela's leader, officials in U.S. President Donald Trump's administration spoke of acquiring Greenland, including potential use of the military. Investors point to a strong outlook for corporate profits, easing monetary policy and coming fiscal stimulus as supports for a bull market that is in its fourth year.
"On balance for this year, the foundation for the market is solid," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management.
"As we're starting January, the market may be underappreciating some of the events on the horizon that could likely produce higher volatility," Arone said.
"It just seems a little too quiet."
While geopolitical events have boosted the safe-haven appeal of gold, stocks have largely shrugged off the uncertainty, said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. The CBOE Volatility Index on Friday was not far above its low point from 2025.
"The market's a bit numb to it," Miskin said. "But this is a time where everything is priced near perfection and it's a time where you can take out some insurance or think about some defensive options just in case another geopolitical event hits the headlines."
Major banks kick off fourth-quarter earnings season in the coming week, with strong profit growth this year a crucial source of optimism for stock investors. Analysts expect that overall earnings from S&P 500 companies climbed 13% in 2025, and they estimate a further rise of over 15% in 2026, according to LSEG IBES.
JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. lender, reports on Tuesday, with Citigroup, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs among those reporting later in the week. Financial sector earnings are expected to have climbed about 7% in the fourth quarter from the year-earlier period.
Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers, will be looking to bank results for insight into the health of the consumer, such as on credit card payment defaults, with consumer spending accounting for more than two-thirds of economic activity.
"The banks are going to be telling you something that is going to be pretty important because they're on the front lines," Janasiewicz said.
Investors have been struggling to get a full picture of the economy because the 43-day government shutdown late last year delayed or canceled key reports, with data flow now returning to normal.
That could raise the stakes for Tuesday's release of December's Consumer Price Index (CPI), closely followed for inflation trends. It will be one of the last key releases before the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next monetary policy meeting at the end of January.
The U.S. central bank lowered interest rates in each of its last three meetings of 2025 in response to a weakening labor market, but investors are unsure when it might cut further.
Fed easing is adding "a sense of calm to risk markets," said Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, global investment strategist at Hartford Funds.
"All the inflation numbers are going to be critical to what Fed policy is going to look like," Abuhoff Jacobson said. "If the mosaic is suggesting that inflation is inching higher, then there are going to be questions about whether the Fed is going to ease in 2026 or how much they can ease."
