The two-week cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran has allowed hundreds of ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz to start moving, but the search for alternative routes in the logistics sector continues.
The U.S.-Iran cease-fire, which also includes Israel, has already been jeopardized by both sides with actions that could violate the deal.
Middle East tensions rose again following Israel’s attack on Lebanon, even before U.S. and Iranian officials met to negotiate an end to the war. The renewed tensions have deepened security risks in the key strategic chokepoint.
Iran reportedly reimposed passage restrictions in the strait, with shipments coming to a standstill again.
The logistics sector has accelerated efforts to find alternatives as the Strait of Hormuz has become a geopolitically controllable corridor.
Rico Luman, senior transport and logistics sector economist at ING Group, told Anadolu Agency (AA) that while some pressure on already tense energy markets has been alleviated, with oil and petroleum product prices dropping, the temporary cease-fire will not bring prices back to prewar levels immediately.
Luman said the lifting of the blockade could allow ships stranded in the Persian Gulf for five weeks to leave. While this has been welcomed as relief for seafarers and related firms, he said fluctuations in supply chains are expected as operations resume, requiring rebalancing after the disruption.
He noted that it will take weeks for all vessels to leave the region and for conditions to normalize, while the strait remains Iran’s bargaining chip in negotiations for a permanent deal, which he expects could result in more restrictive conditions.
Luman said logistics firms have established alternative land routes and are expected to continue using them while monitoring developments. They remain reluctant to resume voyages through the Strait of Hormuz but are expected to move stranded ships and cargo out of the waterway.
He said the situation could benefit land-based supply routes passing through Oman, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye.
Luman added that the energy sector will likely rely more on pipeline infrastructure and possibly expand existing pipelines, while logistics stakeholders will seek to make supply chains more resilient by diversifying routes into and out of the Gulf region.
Bilgehan Engin, president of Türkiye-based International Forwarding and Logistics Association (UTIKAD), said that the two-week cease-fire has raised expectations for gradual normalization in the Strait of Hormuz, but it is too early to say whether safe passage will be fully restored.
Engin said major shippers see the cease-fire as a potential transit opportunity, but it has yet to ensure full maritime security. While oil prices fell and markets showed relief, he said it will take time for maritime flows to return to pre-war levels.
He noted that freight rates and insurance premiums are expected to decline in the short term after sharp increases during the peak of the Middle East crisis, but the easing will be limited.
Insurance premiums and additional fees are not expected to return to pre-war levels soon.
"The cease-fire created some downward pressure on costs in the short term, but the market’s cautious stance and operational prudence will continue.
"The temporary cease-fire has led some logistics firms to treat the situation as a window of opportunity rather than a return to normal, focusing on clearing accumulated cargo, accelerating delayed shipments and rebalancing contracts," Engin said.
"Recent developments showed the Strait of Hormuz has become a geopolitically controlled corridor, so the search for alternatives has become more of a permanent strategy," he added.
Engin said firms are increasingly reducing reliance on a single route, shifting to multimodal transport solutions and diversifying insurance and financial protection tools as part of risk management strategies.
"The global logistics sector will continue to operate with a more flexible structure, using multiple routes and focusing on risk in the coming period. We hope the cease-fire will become lasting, strengthen trust and dialogue, and allow trade to return to previous levels," he added.
