$6.5 trillion to trigger war

Published 20.10.2017 20:45
Updated 21.10.2017 02:03

The recently published International Monetary Fund (IMF) report "World Economic Outlook" indicates that global income is expected to reach $79.3 trillion by the end of 2017, $84.4 trillion in 2018, and $103.2 trillion in 2022. Global income is forecast to grow by $11 trillion in real terms, stripped of inflation, growing between 3.4 percent and 3.7 percent. Thus, the world economy will create an extra $6.5 trillion of added value, separated from inflation, in real terms. The core of the global clash between the Northern-Northern Alliance and the Southern-Southern Alliance and of a low-intensity third world war stems from this. China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, Iran and Russia will be producing 54 percent of this real, inflation-free $6.4 trillion value added in question, whereas the U.S., eurozone, Canada and Britain, which are part of the Northern-Northern Alliance, will create only 29 percent.

IMF data shows that 41.8 percent of total global national income is produced by 39 developed countries, and 58.2 percent is generated by 154 developing countries. Added value is now created by developing economies, and they rapidly strengthen their struggle for the weight they deserve in international economy-politics and global politics, and they have no intention of taking a step back. This is why a decision that supports Palestine comes out of UNESCO. On that account, it was requested that Switzerland and Austria withdraw from the IMF Executive Board membership, and Turkey has been an executive director since 2014, representing eight European countries.

China and India now hold the presidencies of institutions such as the IMF and World Bank, and this request resulted in such serious pressure that for the first time since its establishment in July 2012, the U.S. put forward Jim Yong Kim of South Korean descent instead of a white person for the position. Of the $6.7 trillion of real income that will be produced on the global scale from 2017 to 2019, or $78 billion, 1.2 percent will be provided by Turkey. That is why Turkey's growth success, its determination in structural reforms and very suitable economic conditions created for a large number of refugees were all praised. A substantial weight is in question for Turkey, which is rapidly increasing its impact in future global economy-politics and Eurasia's energy geopolitics.

Turkey's leverage on the region's oil

The price of a barrel of oil was close to $120 at the beginning of 2013, meaning both economic and political power for Russia and Gulf countries. However, with both the rising worries on the global economy and the imbalance between supply and demand of oil, the price decreased below $57. At that point, the price of oil - $67 on May 15, 2015, with the U.S. getting involved in the global energy game as a net exporter and the escalating energy war between Gulf countries, Russia, and the U.S. - experienced a serious collapse to $29 on Jan. 15, 2016. This $90 decrease in oil prices that shocked global economic circles raised tension between the U.S. President Barack Obama's administration, which wanted to eliminate all objections, countering policies and competition toward its policies for Eurasia, and Gulf countries and Russia. Nonetheless, the Obama administration adjusted its policy when its strategy that brought oil prices under $30 dragged U.S. energy companies to the verge of bankruptcy, and oil prices first reached $40 in 2016, then over $50.

Today, however, with the illegitimate independence referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan, and Turkey, Iran, and the central Iraqi government's isolation strategy for the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), after three years, the price of a barrel of crude oil is again nearing $60. The KRG and its president, Masoud Barzani, are in a situation as if he shot himself in the foot, because the pre-referendum daily export of 565,000 barrels of the KRG was critically important - equal to Qatar's daily export. And do not be surprised, 135,000 of those 565,000 barrels were exported to Israel, 125,000 barrels to Italy, 85,000 barrels to Greece, 60,000 barrels to Croatia and 55,000 to Spain. It is obvious who would not like it if Turkey closed the valve. Iraqi Oil Minister Jabarl-Luaibi already announced another pipeline would be repaired to bypass the pipeline that stretches from the KRG to Turkey.

With the new pipeline that will be repaired by the North Oil Company, efforts have begun to transport 400,000 barrels a day from the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. Companies that are interested in the region, such as DNO ASA, Genel Energy, and Gulf Keystone Petroleum, in addition to Russia Gazprom Neft and Rosneft, and Chevron aside, the future of the countries in the Mediterranean and refineries in Europe that need oil is in the hands of Turkey. The policy and strategy Turkey will follow will also shape global oil prices.

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