The entire world would like to know the real reason behind U.S. President Donald Trump's policy of imposing sanctions against Turkey and a number of other countries; and threatening constantly America's traditional allies.
President Trump keeps tweeting about the sanctions, but he doesn't feel the need to explain the real reason behind this harsh policy. If he was explaining why, maybe the world's nations would better understand the shape of things to come. We know that the U.S. public opinion is very divided over Trump's policies. The same divide exists also worldwide, as there are countries who openly declare their hatred against Trump. Some other countries prefer to remain silent, not because they like Trump very much, but as they can't predict his actions, they are being cautious.
Under these circumstances, there is probably a strategic reason to explain the U.S.' current stance against Turkey. It seems the U.S. has decided to build a new axis in the Middle East, on the one hand, by supporting a terrorist autonomy in Iraq and Syria, and on the other, by getting closer to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Israel. Turkey is opposing this axis because it feels it will eventually limit Ankara's room to maneuver in Eastern Mediterranean; and can even threaten its territorial integrity.
Maybe there are some circles who try to figure out ways to persuade Turkey not to oppose this axis, or even to join it. The thing is, as long as Turkey is cornered, or pushed into an economic crisis, the entire Europe and the Middle East will suffer from the consequences. Besides, Russia seems to be willing to get closer to Turkey, as the latter is constantly pushed away by the U.S. It is the perfect opportunity for the Russians to transform the Black Sea into a Russian lake and to dictate its will to the Eastern Mediterranean. Moreover, Russia is beefing up its clout in this wide region practically without any costs, simply by benefiting from Trump's policies.
That's the reason why the leaders of France and Germany feel the need to keep in touch almost on a daily basis with one and other, and then with Russia and Turkey. At the same time, China is multiplying initiatives to replace the U.S. dollar in international transactions. What if other countries decide to support China's initiative? How will the U.S. react to that?
U.S. Vice President Mike Pence seems to be more aware than Trump that this policy line will not be beneficial to the American interests in the long run. That's why he prefers "bad" decisions to be announced to public through Trump's tweets. We know that the mid-term elections in November will be of crucial importance for the Trump administration's future. If the Republicans lose the majority in Congress, Trump can even lose his seat. In case of impeachment, the vice president will automatically replace the current president. Than he can say to America's allies that Trump did many mistakes, and he wants to correct these; but in exchange, the allies would have to accept certain conditions. In other words, Trump will be the bad guy, and the U.S. will get what it needs.
It is impossible to know if this will happen, but if it does, the U.S.' relations with its allies will normalize, and trade wars will be replaced with trade deals beneficial to the U.S. Nevertheless, how will be possible to reverse China's or Russia's gains? It's obvious that European finance experts, economists, business and academic world are studying how to respond to these challenges. Trump has made the world to lose its respect toward the U.S. and he doesn't notice that. Maybe he will notice, though, that he is pushed to make mistakes by those very close to him. Maybe he will choose to not to fall into the trap by changing his attitude toward Turkey as soon as possible, and to do it by himself. It is always wise not to take problems between countries as a personal matter. The leadership races within an administration, however, are quite personal. Just a reminder.
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