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European-Pacific integration and the Turkish People’s preference

by Cemil Ertem

Mar 29, 2014 - 12:00 am GMT+3
by Cemil Ertem Mar 29, 2014 12:00 am
Two news stories made headlines on Wednesday which brought with them a number of repercussions. The first news item was that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is going to provide financial assistance to Ukraine of nearly $27 billion in a two-part agreement over the next two years. The news about the stand-by agreement for the first installment of over $14 billion waiting to be approved by the IMF Board of Executive Directors came at the same time U.S. President Obama stressed that Ukraine is not a member of NATO:

"The U.S. does not prefer to resolve the Crimea issue through military power. Whoever governs Ukraine, they must shelter in our economic policies ... The same will apply for Russia soon. As the energy sources of Caucasia and the Middle East are discovered, the importance you [Russia] bear for the European and global economy will slacken."

This strategy is, to some extent, appropriate and fully reveals the U.S. view of the world, apart from Europe and the Pacific. We witnessed hints of this strategy on the Syrian issue. When the world chose not to intervene in the Syrian conflict, some interpreted it as Turkey being left all alone as punishment for acting hastily; whereas the decision was, in fact, reached independent of Turkey and is one of the most significant strategic changes to predestine the 21th century. Yet, strangely enough, even though the U.S. did not act "smart," the situation in Asia and the Middle East-Turkey will push it down this path. This would undoubtedly be a serious loss of time and a delusion that would deepen the crisis.

In this sense, the Crimean crisis shows how correct Obama's political preference was and of course how it served to bring Turkey to the forefront.

The EU and U.K. began finding ways to reduce their dependence on Russia in terms of both transit commercial corridors and energy. Now it is a well-known fact that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) can only be made possible with central and southern commercial corridors linking Pacific Asia and Europe with Turkey standing as the center point.

China and Asia began a new era, in which they raised the quality of their export goods, and despite last year's economic crisis, China's export to the EU reached nearly 20 percent of its total export. The result was the preference of railway transportation, which is much cheaper and faster than sea freight. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP) will commence once railroads and speed train lines cover the central corridor that is set to start in China, even from South Korea, and pass through Kyrgzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Turkey (Baku-Tbilisi-Kars) to reach Europe. It will introduce a new era when this road meets the southern road across Iran and Turkey.

This situation will create an economy where half the global population meets. Commercial and political rules of economy, legal structure, standards and taxation regimes will be common. This great integration is the only way out for Europe. The European Commission reported many times recently that nearly 90 percent of the total demand (even demand for quality goods) in the world will be outside Europe and thus the EU should spread free trade agreements and open the Pacific corridor. To that end, hot conflict areas should be frozen, including the Kurdish conflict, and frozen conflict areas should move into post-conflict agreements. That is why stability in Turkey is even more important in light of the Crimean crisis.

In relation to these incidents, market inputs in Turkey and the upcoming election polls have been leaning in favor of the AK Party since the beginning of the week. However, the real sector, especially the industry side of it recognized this before the financial markets, despite the Gezi protests. Let's have a look at the chain of prediction: In spite of all provocations since the middle of last year, who could have predicted that Turkey would proceed on its way and take initiative?

First of all, people in both the east and the west embraced this process. Having recognized this, the government and structure of the state did not unravel, rather they pressed the issue. Afterward, the real sector stopped putting on the brakes and exports revved once again.

Turkey's economy is now in an optimal situation in terms of variables like rate of exchange and interest rates, which is a significant advantage.
In the upcoming election process, the majority of people in Turkey and the economy's main actors will side with the stability of the government and its development policies. The reason for this is the emergence of a collective awareness.

Collective awareness draws conclusions faster than individuals do in all societies where information rapidly and transparently circulates. At one point, collective awareness is class-awareness. Everyone who recognizes their interests as a result of their social and economic environment are bestowed with this collective awareness. All great changes, revolutions and riots against tyrants and kings are fruits of collective awareness.

In this sense, there is a phenomenon of massive foresight and intuition, which is quite reliable data. No matter what they say, information is now accessible much more easily and sufficiently in Turkey. It is much easier for "the unenlightened" to obtain information and correctly analyze it compared to "the enlightened," that may be equipped with the wrong knowledge, and ideologies instead of knowledge. This is what we are observing in Turkey today. The people make choices in line with their interests in both the east and the west. This is a "silent" revolution and Turkey is in the midst of it. In this sense, it takes closer analysis and patience to make a decision about the political process in Turkey.
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